An unusually massive Kelvin wave of warm water is surging eastward across the equatorial Pacific, accelerating the world toward a potentially disruptive El Niño cycle that could reshape weather patterns, food supplies, and power demand across Asia.  

On May 29, China’s National Climate Centre issued an official warning, confirming that sea surface temperatures have rapidly entered an El Niño state. Meteorological models now project the system will strengthen into a moderate-to-high intensity event through summer before peaking during autumn and winter.  

The atmosphere is already reacting sharply to the warming Pacific waters.  

For India, the timing could hardly be worse. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has aligned its outlook with the evolving Pacific conditions, forecasting the southwest monsoon at just 90% of the long-period average — officially categorised as “below normal”.  

The rapid shift is raising concerns over agricultural output, inflation, water security, and electricity demand across Asia’s two largest economies.  

“The probability of strong El Niño events is increasing, and it is expected to weaken next spring,” said Gao Rong, deputy director of China’s National Climate Centre. “In the Western Pacific, the shift can disrupt the East Asian monsoon, increasing the risk of flooding in southern China and drought in other regions.”  

Agriculture under pressure  

In China, heavier autumn rainfall south of the Yangtze River threatens to damage late-season rice harvests and disrupt rural supply chains.  

India faces a different threat. A projected monsoon deficit could weaken kharif crop output, especially in rainfed agricultural regions dependent on seasonal rainfall. Historically, El Niño years have been associated with lower yields in crops such as rice, pulses, sugarcane, and oilseeds.  

The concern extends beyond farms. Weak monsoon seasons often translate into higher food inflation, tighter rural incomes, and rising pressure on government welfare spending.  

Water and power stress intensifying  

Climate agencies are also warning about growing stress on water and power systems.  

China is already witnessing record electricity demand across southern provinces as temperatures climb. Warmer winters linked to El Niño conditions could further reduce water reserves needed for spring planting in 2027.  

India is confronting similar pressures. Early-season heatwaves have pushed temperatures close to 46°C in several regions, driving sharp spikes in electricity consumption and straining power grids before the monsoon has fully stabilised temperatures.  

Fears of a ‘Super El Niño’  

International climate agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), are closely tracking Pacific Ocean anomalies.  

Some global climate models indicate that sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific could exceed 2°C — a threshold associated with “Super El Niño” events.  

If the ocean-atmosphere coupling intensifies through the remaining summer months, the event could join the ranks of the powerful 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño cycles, both of which triggered severe droughts, water shortages, crop failures, and inflationary shocks across several parts of Asia, including India.

Published on: May 29, 2026 1:20 PM IST