Indian shares are likely to open higher on Monday, supported by easing oil prices amid some signs of some de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, while results of key ​assembly elections will also be in focus. The results of assembly elections in four Indian states, including Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, and one union territory will be announced during the session.

Indian markets are expected to remain sideways with a positive bias in the near term with global headwinds and intermittent volatility continuing to weigh on sentiment, supportive domestic cues, said By Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Investor sentiment will also be influenced by state election results on Monday, he said.
 

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks

GIFT Nifty Futures or Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 155.80 points, or 0.65 per cent, up at 24,254, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Monday. Shares edged higher while oil prices flatlined in Asia on Monday. KOSPI surged more than 4 per cent, while Hang Seng was up nearly 2 per cent. Nikkei also inched higher.

US stocks mostly rose on Friday, boosted by robust earnings and a dip ​in crude prices, and turning the page on their biggest monthly percentage gains in years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.31 per cent to 49,499.27, the ​S&P 500 gained 0.29 per cent ​to 7,230.12 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.89 per cent to 25,114.44.
 

Crude, US dollar, gold & more

In commodity markets, gold prices nudged lower on Monday, weighed down by inflation worries that clouded the US monetary policy outlook, while markets awaited developments in US-Iran peace negotiations. Gold was 0.2 per cent lower at $4,603 an ounce, and well within recent trading ranges.

Brent crude futures were flat at $108.30 ​per barrel, having recovered from an initial drop of more than 2 per cent, while US crude was steady at $102.01. In currency markets, the dollar was a shade softer as investors waited ⁠for more developments ​in the Middle East and, crucially, whether the Strait of Hormuz could be opened. The US dollar index was flat at 98.144.

With global uncertainties persisting and domestic cues remaining mixed, investors should maintain a cautious and selective approach, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. Traders should remain agile, avoid aggressive leverage, and adhere to disciplined risk management practices, he said.
 

FII-DII flows

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 8,047.86 crore on Thursday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 3,487.10 crore on a net-net basis. Foreign investors sold Rs 60,847 crore in stocks of Indian listed companies as of April 2026.

A significant trend in FPI flows this year is that Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are attracting significant inflows while India and some other emerging markets which are facing headwinds from the energy crisis and currency depreciation are facing outflows, said  Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

Technically, the short-term market texture is volatile and non-directional. On the lower side, market is consistently taking support near the 20-day SMA or 23,800/76,700, while the 50-day SMA at 24,200/78300 would act as a consistent resistance zone for traders, said Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

 "As long as the market is trading within this range, non-directional activity is likely to continue. On the higher side, if the index succeeds in trading above 24,200/78,300, the chances of reaching 24,500/79,200 would increase. However, while below 23,800/76,700, selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Below this level, the market could slip to 23,600–23,500/76,100-75,800," he said.

Nifty50 struggled to sustain above the 20-day EMA, but it eventually managed to close above it. It settled above the 100-week EMA at 23,997.55, which reflects underlying strength and hints at a potential shift toward a positive trend. Overall, the price action suggests consolidation with a mildly bullish bias, said Choice Broking.

"On the upside, resistance levels are placed at 24,350 and 24,600. On the downside, support is seen at 23,900 and 23,550. A breakdown below 23,500 could result in increased selling pressure. Given the current market structure, traders are advised to remain disciplined and adhere to strict stop-loss strategies amid ongoing volatility," it added.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Bank Nifty saw buying interest at lower levels led to a steady recovery, with the index trimming a part of its losses. It formed a thin-body candle with a prominent lower wick on the daily charts, highlighting accumulation at lower levels, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Going ahead, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 54,400-54,300 zone. Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its weakness towards 53,900, followed by 53,500 in the short term. On the upside, the zone of 55,400–55,500 zone is likely to act as an immediate resistance," it said.

Nifty Bank formed a doji candle with shadows in either direction highlighting intraday volatility and consolidation around the previous gap area of 8th April, said Bajaj Broking. "Overall, we expect the Bank Nifty to extend consolidation in the broad range of 54,000-57,500 amid stock specific action as we progress through the quarterly earning session of the banking stocks."

Going ahead, a follow through strength will open further upside towards 56,000-56,500 levels in the coming sessions. From a short-term perspective, support is placed in the range of 54,500–54,000 zone, being the confluence of the recent low and 38.2 per cent retracement of the last 3 weeks pullback, Bajaj Broking adds.