Residential sales across India’s top seven cities remained flat for the third consecutive year in FY26, but the value of bookings rose 7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 7 lakh crore as demand continued to shift away from affordable housing towards mid-income and premium homes, according to a JM Financial report citing Propequity data.

JM Financial said this polarisation in demand has kept overall industry volumes stagnant even as realisations improved sharply. It said listed developers continued to outperform the broader market, with the top 14 listed companies reporting 20 per cent YoY growth in pre-sales in FY26 and taking their market share to about 20 per cent

The brokerage said stronger execution, brand recall and a sustained shift in demand towards larger developers supported this trend, while fresh project additions worth more than INR 2 trillion have improved near-term visibility. Residential sales volume across the top seven cities stood at 648 msf in FY26, unchanged on an annual basis and broadly flat since FY24, said the report.

However, blended realisation rose at an 11 per cent CAGR over FY24-26 as the affordable segment shrank and volumes moved towards premium housing. The report said units priced below Rs 1 crore have declined 22 per cent since FY24, while units priced above Rs 10 crore recorded a 13 per cent CAGR over the same period, driven by upgrade aspirations, a rising pool of high-income families and sustained interest from NRIs.

JM Financial said unsold inventory remains under control despite the weak volume trend. Industry-wide unsold stock stood at about 940 msf, translating into an overhang of 17 months. The brokerage said this remains broadly within the historical comfort zone and has usually been associated with steady price increases.

In the listed space, the top 14 companies posted cumulative bookings of Rs 1.47 lakh crore in FY26, up 20 per cent Yo, JM Financial said. Sobha led growth with a 30 per cent rise in bookings, while GPL and Lodha each posted 16 per cent growth. Smaller listed companies such as Keystone and Sunteck also recorded 25-30 per cent growth.

The report said the market share of the listed universe has risen steadily to 20 per cent in FY26, reflecting continued consolidation of demand towards bigger branded developers. JM Financial said listed developers used the strong pre-sales cycle of the past few years to strengthen future growth pipelines.

The group generated operating cash flow of about Rs 35,000 crore, with most of it redeployed into land acquisitions and new project tie-ups as balance sheets were already strong. Collectively, listed players added more than Rs 2 lakh crore of new projects through outright purchases as well as joint development and joint venture arrangements.

The report said these additions were broad-based across geographies, with several companies making inroads into newer micro-markets and cities, giving visibility to current growth rates if launches remain timely. JM Financial said macro headwinds including AI-led disruptions to market sentiment, rising inflation and the risk of higher interest rates could weigh on the near term.

It said inflationary pressures linked to the ongoing West Asia conflict have added to concerns, though demand, especially in the mid-income segment, has remained resilient so far. The report added that valuations have corrected meaningfully, with embedded ebitda multiples at roughly half their peak levels, but any re-rating may be gradual in the absence of a near-term positive trigger.

JM Financial has a 'buy' rating on DLF (Target Price: Rs 775), Lodha Developers (Target Price: Rs 1,200), Godrej Properties (Target Price: Rs 2,250), Oberoi Realty (Target Price: Rs 1,920), Sobha (Target Price: Rs 1,775), Brigade Enterprises (Target Price: Rs 920) and Keystone Realtors (Target Price: Rs 560).