Assembly election results 2026: Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty started the week on a firm footing on Monday, ahead of the assembly election outcomes due later in the day. Initial trends suggested that the BJP was leading in West Bengal with 114 seats, while the incumbent TMC+ trailed at 103. In Assam, the ruling party was ahead with 61 seats. Analysts noted that a likely increase in the BJP’s strength in the respective state legislative assemblies, if the trends hold, could further boost the NDA’s position in upcoming Rajya Sabha election cycles. However, they added that any impact of the assembly election outcome on the stock market is likely to be short-lived.

At 9.19 am, the BSE Sensex was trading at 77,505.81, up 592.31 points or 0.77 per cent. The NSE barometer  Nifty was quoting at 24,180, up 182.45 pouits or 0.76 per cent. Fear gauge India VIX eased 3.04 per cent to 17.90. 

"Today’s market action may be unduly influenced by the state election results with focus on West Bengal. But it is important to note that this will be only a very short-term sentimental impact. The real market trend will be guided by the crude oil prices, which, in turn, will be decided by the news and happenings in West Asia," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments.

Kotak said Indian equities are likely to react positively in the near term if exit polls, particularly the BJP's projected breakthrough in West Bengal, are validated on Monday. 

"However, we think the durability of any rally will be tested quickly, as the trajectory of crude oil remains the single largest short-term risk variable. We expect markets to trade in a range, with election enthusiasm fading relatively quickly as attention reverts to earnings delivery, oil price trajectory and its implications for India’s macro and the government's willingness to undertake difficult but necessary policy adjustments on energy pricing," it said.

Investors, meanwhile, also took note of the US President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the US will help and guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz.  Brent, which hit a high of $126.41 a barrel on April 30, was last quoting at $108.66 a barrel, up 0.45 per cent.

"Also, there is a latest proposal from Iran to the US delivered through Pakistan," Vijayakumar said.

While state elections typically carry less structural significance than national polls, they remain important in shaping perceptions around policy continuity, regional growth prospects and investor confidence.

"Current market positioning suggests that a degree of continuity is already priced in. Should outcomes align with exit polls or broadly reflect stable governance, the market reaction is likely to be measured rather than directional," said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, a SEBI-registered online trading and wealth-tech firm.