FMCG giant ITC Ltd is expected to report a flattish year-on-year (YoY) growth in net profit for the March quarter and a similar trend in sales later today, as the cigarette segment Q4 performance is expected to be impacted by the transition to the new taxation structure and one-off realisation gains in February. Ahead of Q4 results, ITC has targets largely in the Rs 305-399 range, with the stock trading 0.23 per cent higher at Rs 308.25 apiece at 11.41 am. The cigarette maker will also consider final dividend for FY27 today. 

Kotak Institutional Equities expects ITC to report 3.3 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in net profit at Rs 5,034 crore in the March quarter compared with a profit of Rs 4,874.70 crore in the year-ago quarter. Sales are seen jumping 7.2 per cent YoY to Rs 18,498 crore from Rs 17,248 crore. 

Kotak estimated cigarette volume to degrow 1 per cent. It said January witnessed strong trade offtake ahead of price hikes, resulting in robust volume and value growth, marginally better than the Q3 run rate.

Cigarette segment 

The month of February was mixed, with the first half benefitting from significantly higher realizations (one-off) and volumes prior to price hikes, while the second half saw weaker primary sales post hikes. March was weak due to channel stocking in the first two months and a realization decline, leading to subdued volume and value growth. 

"Cigarette EBIT growth is estimated at 3 per cent YoY, with EBIT margins seen declining 100 bps YoY , reflecting the sustained impact of higher leaf tobacco costs in 4QFY26 and a weak March, during which price hikes were insufficient to fully protect profitability," it said. 

JM Financial sees profit falling 1.9 per cent YoY to Rs 4,781.80 crore on 2.8 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 18.770 crore. Ebitda is seen at Rs 5,846.90 crore, down 2.3 per cent.  

Nuvama is pencilling in a marginal 0.4 per cent YoY decline net profit atRs 4,853.20 crore. It sees sales falling 1.3 per cent to Rs 17,019.10 crore. It is factoring flat cigarette volumes against 7 per cent YoY growth in Q3 and 5 per cent YoY in Q4.  

Other segments

"The FMCG business is likely to expand 10 per cent YoY (up 11.1 per cent YoY in Q3FY26; 3.7 per cent YoY in Q4FY25) with EBIT surge of 37 per cent YoY, driven by a favourable base and improving margins. Agri business revenue is likely to fall 10 per cent YoY, hurt by Middle East-related shipment disruptions though profits may soar 42 per cent YoY due to margin recovery. Paper business is likely to report 3 per cent YoY while profits may inch down 2 per cent YoY due to high import competition and limited operating leverage," it said.

ITC target prices
Ahead of its results, BNP Paribas has 'Outperform' and a target of Rs 360 on ITC. Investec's target on the stock stood at Rs 349. Macquarie has a target of Rs 330 on the scrip. MOFSL, ICICI Securities, IIFL Securities have targets in Rs 320-335 range.