India installs between one and 1.5 crore air conditioners every year, two to three times the rate of just a few years ago. Each unit consumes 100 to 150 times the electricity of an LED bulb. And without policy intervention, the country is on course for power shortages as early as 2028.

A new study by Nikit Abhyankar and colleagues from the UC Berkeley Goldman School of Public Policy has put hard numbers on the scale of the problem and the opportunity. Improving the energy efficiency of room ACs, the study finds, could help India avoid a looming energy crisis and save Rs 8 lakh crore in power infrastructure investment, while consumers stand to save between Rs 91,000 crore and Rs 2.48 lakh crore over the life of their units, as reported by Deccan Herald.

The scale of what is coming

The study describes ACs as having become the "single largest driver" of peak electricity demand in India. The arithmetic is sobering. "The scale of what's coming is staggering. India adds 1 crore to 1.5 crore ACs every year, about two to three times the level of just a few years ago. As temperatures rise and household incomes grow, another 13-15 crore units will likely be installed over the next decade," the study noted.

Without intervention, ACs are projected to account for more than one-third of India's evening peak load, 120 GW by 2030 and 180 GW by 2035. "Even with all under-construction generation and storage projects online, power shortages are expected as early as 2028," the study warned.

The solution: Smarter standards, sooner

The researchers argue that the problem is solvable, but only with timely, long-term policy action. They point to Minimum Energy Performance Standards combined with comparative star labelling as among the most cost-effective tools for driving appliance efficiency at scale.

The study acknowledges the Bureau of Energy Efficiency's planned revision to raise MEPS by approximately 25%, but argues a 10-year policy roadmap is needed to give manufacturers the certainty required to invest in more efficient technology.

Abhyankar, the study's lead author and a UC Berkeley faculty member, framed the stakes plainly: "Without intervention, we risk blackouts or costly emergency fixes. But with smart policy, we can turn this challenge into a win for consumers, manufacturers, and the grid."

What the study recommends

The researchers call for upgrading MEPS to the equivalent of the current 5-star level, an ISEER of 5.3, by 2030, and further to an ISEER of 6.7 by 2033. The projected benefits are substantial: avoiding 10 GW of peak demand by 2030 and 47 GW by 2035, averting supply shortfalls and saving an estimated Rs 8 lakh crore in power infrastructure that would otherwise need to be built. Consumer savings are estimated at Rs 91,000 crore in the conservative scenario, rising to Rs 2.48 lakh crore between 2028 and 2035.

Published on: May 27, 2026 2:44 PM IST