The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday maintained its forecast of a below-normal southwest monsoon for 2026, citing a high probability of El Nino conditions developing and strengthening during the crucial June-September rainfall season.

According to the latest forecast, seasonal rainfall across the country is expected to be around 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), while rainfall during June is projected at 92% of the LPA. The weather agency warned that evolving El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean could adversely affect rainfall distribution across key agricultural regions.

The IMD said that neutral conditions in the Equatorial Pacific are gradually transitioning towards El Nino. Climate models currently indicate a 92% probability of El Nino prevailing during the 2026 monsoon season, with the phenomenon expected to intensify as the season progresses.

The weather office expects weak El Nino conditions in June, followed by weak-to-moderate intensity during July and August. By September, El Nino is likely to strengthen further and may reach a moderate-to-strong phase, increasing the risk of rainfall deficits across large parts of the country.

India last witnessed a below-normal monsoon in 2023, another El Nino year, when seasonal rainfall was recorded at 94% of the LPA. With the IMD now projecting rainfall at 90% of the LPA for 2026, the anticipated deficit could be deeper than that seen three years ago, raising concerns over agricultural output and food prices. 

Rainfall distribution

The weather agency said rainfall distribution is likely to remain uneven across the country. While Northeast India is forecast to receive normal rainfall, ranging between 94% and 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA), regions including Central India, Northwest India and the Southern Peninsula are expected to experience below-normal precipitation during the season.

Particular concern has been raised over the monsoon core zone, which includes many of India's rain-fed farming regions in central and northwest India. The IMD forecasts rainfall in this zone to remain below normal, at less than 94% of the long-period average.

Region-wise projections indicate that northwest India could receive less than 92% of normal rainfall, while central India and the southern peninsula are also expected to witness below-normal precipitation. In contrast, northeast India is likely to receive normal rainfall, estimated between 94% and 106% of the long-term average.

Below-normal rainfall

The IMD’s probabilistic outlook suggests that below-normal rainfall is likely across most parts of India during the June-September monsoon season. However, some areas of northwest India, parts of southern India, adjoining east-central regions, and isolated pockets in the northeast could still experience normal to above-normal rainfall.

The forecast has heightened concerns about the potential impact on agriculture and food prices. India remains heavily dependent on monsoon rains, with a significant portion of cultivated land lacking assured irrigation facilities. Weaker rainfall could affect kharif crop sowing, reduce agricultural output, and increase pressure on food inflation.

The warning comes amid broader inflation concerns linked to global geopolitical tensions, including disruptions stemming from the Iran-US conflict. Any weather-related decline in farm production could add further strain to food supplies and prices.

The southwest monsoon, which typically arrives over Kerala in June, contributes nearly 70% of India's annual rainfall. It plays a vital role in supporting agriculture, replenishing reservoirs, sustaining rural incomes, and driving overall economic activity across the country. As a result, the progress of the 2026 monsoon will be closely watched by policymakers, farmers, and markets alike.

Published on: May 29, 2026 1:03 PM IST