The biggest shift in US immigration under Donald Trump may not be at the border but in the legal pathways people use to enter the country. A new analysis by Cato Institute’s David J. Bier finds that while illegal crossings have declined, legal immigration, particularly high-skilled routes like H-1B visas, has dropped far more sharply.

“As expected, President Trump has reduced illegal entries but his administration has reduced legal entries far more,” Bier said.

Legal immigration cuts outpace border decline

Bier’s analysis estimates that reductions in legal entries are roughly 2.5 times larger than the fall in illegal crossings. He noted that illegal immigration had already been declining before Trump took office, with much of the drop occurring earlier, and said the current administration has largely continued that trend.

By contrast, legal immigration has reversed sharply.

“The cut to legal entries was 2.5 times as large,” Bier said, adding that nearly three-quarters of the total drop in immigration now comes from legal pathways.

H-1B visas take a direct hit

Among the most affected routes are H-1B visas, widely used by high-skilled foreign workers — particularly in technology, engineering and healthcare, including many from India.

Bier estimates H-1B visa issuances have fallen by about 25 percent, partly due to a policy change imposing a $100,000 fee on companies petitioning for workers from outside the United States.

In a court filing cited by Bier, petitions for such workers dropped by as much as 87 percent after the fee was introduced. Since these visas depend on new approvals, the full impact is still unfolding.

Students and families are also affected

The tightening of legal immigration routes extends beyond skilled workers.

International student visas fell by about 40 percent during peak periods following suspensions, enforcement actions and country-specific bans.

Family-based immigration has also declined sharply. Visas for spouses and fiancés of US citizens dropped by roughly 65 per cent, while broader immigrant visa categories contracted under sweeping country bans and administrative slowdowns.

Asylum, refugee pathways collapse

Legal asylum entry at the southern border has nearly disappeared after key entry processes were eliminated. Admissions fell by 99.9 per cent, from nearly 40,000 per month to just a few dozen.

Refugee admissions have also dropped by about 90 percent following policy changes and tighter caps.

Bier said the numbers reflect a wider shift in immigration policy.

“It is not about stopping ‘illegal’ immigration,” he said. “It is a broader assault on all types of immigration.”

According to his estimates, about 72 percent of the total reduction in immigration stems from cuts to legal entries rather than illegal crossings.

Published on: Apr 23, 2026 11:31 AM IST