West Asia framework has largely played out as anticipated, with the ceasefire and the likely reopening of the Strait of Hormuz creating a credible off-ramp after the recent escalation, said Choice Institutional Equities. The brokerage said it had earlier argued that geopolitical uncertainty capped market upside and later described the conflict as a Prisoner's Dilemma.

The easing in tensions has helped Brent retreat from conflict highs of about $125 a barrel and lowered geopolitical risk premia. But Choice said India's challenge may outlast the conflict because the country imports about 85 per cent of its crude oil needs and more than 50 per cent of its natural gas requirements.

Even if Brent stabilises at $80-90 a barrel, with its FY27E estimate at $89 against an FY25 average of $76, the macro impact would be meaningful. Higher fuel, freight and input costs could keep inflation sticky, raise the risk of monetary tightening, and weigh on corporate profitability and consumption.

In Choice's market view, geopolitical tail risk may have faded, but the macroeconomic aftershocks are only beginning to emerge. Under a Brent-at-USD-89 scenario, India's CAD moves from -0.6 per cent in FY26 to -2.2 per cent in FY27E, GDP growth slows from 7.7 per cent to 6.5 per cent, and the Nifty de-rates to 17.0-18.0 times.

It said this is not a backdrop that supports an aggressive long-India position, especially as consensus earnings estimates have already been downgraded. Choice said India's macro-equity set-up has weakened in recent quarters, with softer demand and West Asia-linked margin pressure driving cuts to Nifty 50 earnings estimates for FY27E and FY28E.

The pressure is visible in foreign portfolio investor flows. FY27TD has seen outflows of about Rs 1.5 lakh crore after cumulative outflows of Rs 3.1 lakh crore in FY25 and FY26, against inflows of about Rs 2.7 lakh crore in FY21 and Rs 2 lakh crore in FY24. FPI ownership in the NSE coverage universe has fallen from about 19 per cent in Q4FY23 to about 16 per cent in Q4FY26, though DII flows have cushioned the market.

Elevated US yields have further weakened the foreign-flow set-up by compressing the India-US yield differential, Choice said, reducing India's relative appeal for overseas capital just as earnings expectations have come under pressure.

Persistent FPI outflows and weaker external-flow support have also weighed on the rupee, which has depreciated about 6.4 per cent over the last six months. On valuations, Choice said India does not look outright cheap on a relative basis. The Nifty 50 is trading at 21.4 times trailing earnings, below its five-year average of 23.1 times, but still at one of the highest multiples among key global markets.

Its PEG ratio of about 1.8 times suggests valuations remain expensive relative to expected earnings growth. The concern is sharper in the broader market, where small-cap valuations at 33.2 times trailing earnings remain above their five-year average of about 28.1 times, while mid-cap valuations are only modestly below historical averages.

Choice said domestic liquidity has become the market's anchor as fundamentals remain under pressure. SIP flows have risen structurally from Rs 1.2 lakh crore in FY22 to Rs 3.5 lakh crore in FY26, and monthly inflows have held up even in volatile phases, absorbing FPI outflows and underpinning valuations. Choice's said the oil shock may have eased, but pressure on growth, flows and valuations remains.

The brokerage said it is overweight on Defence, Hospitals, New-Age Technology and Pharmaceuticals. At the same time, it flagged a key risk: a moderation in SIP flows alongside a sustained absence of FPIs, weaker earnings and premium PEG multiples could leave Indian equities exposed to a sharper-than-expected correction.

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