Shares of Tata Power Company, which have clocked moderate gains in period up to a year, are set for a major upside, believes Mirae Asset Sharekhan. The brokerage expects the stock to hit the Rs 485 mark in a year. The Tata Group firm has a well-planned strategy to shift towards clean energy and targets a 2.5 times rise in profit by FY2030E over FY2024, said Sharekhan. However, the brokerage expects risks such as as 1) Slower-than-expected ramp-up of renewable energy portfolio and expansion in distribution business, 2) lower-than-expected profitability in Solar EPC business. 

Tata Power shares slipped 0.36% to Rs 413.40 today against the previous close of Rs 414.90. Market cap of the firm fell to Rs 1.32 lakh crore. The stock is neither oversold nor overbought on charts, signals its relative strength index (RSI), which stands at 46.6. 

In the recently announced earnings, Tata Power’s capital expenditure for FY26 came at Rs 13,000 crore, which was below the previous guidance of Rs 20,000-22,000 crore. 

The shortfall was attributed to delays in  large utility-scale solar and wind projects, as well as transmission line projects due to rightof-way issues and delays in TBCB projects. For FY’27, the capex guidance has been fixed at approximately Rs 25,000 crore, which will include the projects deferred from FY26, along with distribution, transmission, and hydropower projects.

In Q4, Tata Power reported a 4.5% year-on-year (YoY) drop in its consolidated net profit to Rs 996 crore against Rs 1043 crore on a year on year basis. 

Profit was hit by the temporary suspension of operations at the Mundra Power Plant from July 3, 2025, due to the pending overhauling activities aimed at resolving the technical issues.

Revenue from operations in Q4 slipped 12.8% YoY to Rs 14,900 crore against Rs 17,096 crore in the fourth quarter of the 2024-25 fiscal year (Q4 FY25).

Sharekhan said Tata Power's focus on high-growth renewable power business would play a crucial role for sustained earnings growth and improved earnings quality. The share of renewables in PAT is expected to rise to 50% in FY30.