• Q4 FY26 net profit rose 69.3% YoY to Rs 1,172.1 crore, revenue up 10.8%
• Asian Paints shares down 53% from 52-week high after 21% surge in 2025
• Expect 8-10% volume growth, stable margins, and 13% CAGR earnings till FY29

Shares of Asian Paints, which surged over 21% in 2025, have fallen 53% from their 52-week high. The paints stock hit a 52-week high of Rs 2985.50 on December 4, 2025. The stock slipped to 52 week low of Rs 2116 on March 23, 2026. However, the stock seems to have recovered after the selloff this year. It has surged 25% from the 52-week low till date.

The company last week declared Q4 earnings, which beat estimates. The company reported a strong performance in the March 2026 quarter, with consolidated net profit surging 69.3% year-on-year to Rs 1,172.1 crore. Revenue growth remained steady as net sales rose 10.8% from a year earlier to Rs 9,228.5 crore.

Operationally, the company also posted robust gains, with profit before exceptional items and tax rising 33.9% year-on-year to Rs 1,614.1 crore during the quarter.

Reflecting confidence in its financial position and cash generation, the board declared a final dividend of Rs 23 per share for FY26. Including the interim dividend paid earlier in the year, the company's total dividend payout for FY26 stands at Rs 27.50 per share.

Brokerage Systematix assigned a target price of Rs 3105 on the paints stock. 

The brokerage said management highlighted improving demand trends (double-digit growth sustaining in each month of 4Q26) have sustained over April-May across rural and urban markets; Asian Paints expects volume growth at 8-10% YoY in the next few quarters despite pricing actions. 

The leading paints major also expects improving mix to lead to a narrower value-volume gap of 3-4% going forward (vs prior guidance of 4-5%). However, competitive intensity (reflected in discounting) remains elevated, with no let-up seen in FY27.

"We maintain BUY rating on APNT, roll forward valuation to March-2028E (from December-2027E) and value the stock at a P/E of 53x (in-line with its current one-year forward multiple), resulting in a revised TP of Rs 3,105 (vs Rs 3,160 earlier)," said the brokerage. 

ICICI Direct has a price target of Rs 3055 with an upside of 14% in a year. 

"The company has undertaken price hike of 10-11% to mitigate the impact of 20% increase in the raw material prices. This along with cost saving measures and backward integration benefits will help to keep EBIDTA margins in the range of 18-20% in FY27. With competitive intensity stabilising, we expect Asian Paints to achieve double digit earnings growth in the stable macro and input cost environment," said ICICIDirect. 

Global brokerage Nomura reiterated its buy rating on the paints stock with a target price of Rs 3,600 per share. According to Nomura, Asian Paints delivered a stronger-than-expected performance during the quarter, surpassing estimates on revenue growth, volume expansion and operating margins. The brokerage also noted an improvement in the company's outlook for product mix, indicating a favourable shift toward higher-value offerings.

Nomura believes that the intensity of competitive pressures in the paints industry may have reached its peak, creating a more supportive environment for market leaders. With improving business fundamentals and a healthier industry backdrop, the brokerage expects Asian Paints to sustain robust earnings growth over the coming years.

The brokerage forecasts the company to clock a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% in earnings between FY26 and FY29.