Indian shares are set to open higher on Monday, tracking gains across Asian markets after signs of progress in US-Iran peace talks eased concerns that negotiations were at risk of collapsing. Brent crude stayed below $80 a barrel, offering relief to oil-importing economies. Three Indian-flagged tankers carrying more than 860,000 metric tons of oil had safely crossed the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite the weakness, broader sentiment remained resilient as sentiment was supported by easing geopolitical concerns. The improved geopolitical backdrop is expected to lend support to market sentiment heading into next week, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "We remain constructive on the defence sector."

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 67.60 points, or 0.28 per cent, up at 24,124.50, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian share markets swung higher on Monday as Iranian negotiators said progress had been made in peace talks with the United States. Nikkei gained more than 2 per cent, while KOSPI was up more than a per cent.

US stock markets closed with a high note Friday, with technology shares powering a broad-based rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted modest advance, rising 72.15 points, or 0.14 per cent, to finish at 51,564.70. The S&P 500 advanced 80.48 points, or 1.08 per cent, to settle at 7,500.58 The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite soared 496.28 points, or 1.91 per cent, to close at 26,517.93

Crude, US dollar, gold & more
Brent crude futures ⁠shed early gains to ease 0.4 per cent to $80.17 a barrel, while US crude remained 1.2 per cent firmer at $77.52 a barrel. News of the progress in peace talks helped gold bounce 1.1 per cent to $4,205 an ounce. The dollar was firm on Monday, while the Indian rupee's direction this week will hinge on whether lower oil prices hold and on the dollar's trajectory.

While the underlying market tone has improved, global developments and key domestic data releases warrant a balanced and selective approach, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Investors and traders should avoid excessive leverage and remain mindful of lingering risks related to inflation, monsoon progression, and an evolving global backdrop."

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 4,859.07 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned sellers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,159.64 crore on a net-net basis. Foreign investors pulled out Rs 63,450 crore from Indian equities in June 2026 so far.

Rupee is likely to appreciate further in the coming weeks. In the context of appreciating rupee, FPIs are unlikely to sell significantly, going forward.  The concentration risk in investing in a few stocks in South Korea and Taiwan is making FPIs a bit worried, said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments.

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook
Market has formed a Doji candlestick pattern on weekly charts, indicating indecisiveness between the bulls and the bears. The short-term market outlook remains positive, and a strategy of buying on dips and selling on rallies would be ideal for traders, said Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

"In the near future, for Nifty, the 50-day SMA or 23,850 and 23,750, respectively, which would act as crucial support zones. For Sensex levels would be 76200 and 75900. 24,200-24,400/77300-77900 could be key resistance levels for the bulls. However, below 23,750/75900, the uptrend would become vulnerable. If it falls below this level, traders may consider exiting their long positions," he said.

Sensex has slipped below immediate short-term momentum levels after failing to sustain higher levels. Immediate resistance is placed near 77,200, followed by 77,300, while the 76,300–76,400 zone is expected to act as strong support and may attract accumulation from positional investors, said  Aakash Shah, Research Analyst, Choice Equity Broking. "A decisive move above resistance could revive buying interest, whereas a breach of support may extend the corrective phase."

Nifty delivers a convincing close above the 24150 mark, it would be prudent to avoid aggressive positioning and instead look for opportunities near strong support zones, said Hitesh Rathi, Technical Analyst of Equity & Derivatives at Angel One. "The immediate support is placed near 23,900, followed by a stronger support band in the 23,710–23,620 zone. On the upside, the previous session high near 24,200 acts as the immediate resistance, followed by a stronger hurdle in the 24,450–24,500 zone."

India VIX declined 13 per cent during the week to settle below 13, and any further moderation in volatility could provide additional support to the market's positive sentiment, said Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse.

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank has been consolidating within a tight range over the last five sessions on the daily charts. It continues to trade above its key short-term and long-term moving averages. The index remains in the leading quadrant of the RRG, indicating strong relative strength and momentum compared to the broader market, said Sudeep Shah,  Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Going ahead, the immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is placed in the 58,100-58,200 zone. Any sustainable move above this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its pullback towards 58,600, followed by 59,000 in the short term. On the downside, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 57,300-57,200 zone," it added.

Nifty Bank formed a doji candlestick pattern on the weekly chart with a higher high and a higher low and a bullish gap below its base highlighting extension of the up move. Key observation in the daily chart is that the 20 days EMA has generated a bullish crossover above its 50 days EMA thus supports the positive bias, which may continue, said Bajaj Broking Research. 
 
"However, we believe the overall structure is positive, and any dips should be used to accumulate quality banking stocks in a staggered manner. Key support is placed at 56,000 levels being the confluence of the 38.2 per cent retracement of the entire pullback 53,027-57954 and the recent breakout area," it added.