Key takeaways from the 49th Annual General Meeting of Reliance Industries Ltd were the clarity on the Jio IPO, with the listing likely by the end of the year; the expected start of New Energy monetisation in FY27; and the commencement of sovereign AI investments at Jamnagar. Reliance Industries’ Chairman Mukesh Ambani also announced plans to more than double RIL’s consolidated Ebitda over the next five years. A couple of brokerages said RIL has entered execution phase, as they largely maintained 'Buy' rating on the stock with targets of up to Rs 1,765 apiece.  

RIL: Key catalysts 

In a note, Nomura India said solar cells and modules have already been commissioned and the first phase of 40GWh battery gigafactory will be commissioned this year. New Energy segment will report first revenue from FY27, the foreign brokerage said adding that the $3 billion green energy supply agreement with Samsung C&T supports RIL's ambitious green-molecule story.

On AI, Nomura said Reliance Intelligence has moved from plan to execution, with the Jamnagar sovereign AI hub targeting the first 120MW by end-FY26E. It represents an early-stage, capex-heavy optionality play for Reliance, the foreign brokerage said adding that the monetisation still to be proven as Reliance to target affordable, multilingual AI services across consumers, enterprises, and government.

"We maintain our Buy rating and SoTP-based target price at Rs 1,640. Post the potential Jio IPO, new catalysts to look forward to may come from: 1) ramp-up of new energy business and revenue contribution starting FY27; 2) growth of the AI business with 120MW by FY26-end; and 3) potential listing of the Retail business," Nomura said.
 
RIL growth drivers
MOFSL expects RJio (Jio Platforms) may remain the biggest growth driver for RIL, with digital likely to contribute 80 per cent of RIL’s incremental Ebitda. It sees 18 per cent Ebitda growth for Jio compounded annually over FY26-28E, driven by the wireless tariff hike (15 per cent in Q2), market share gains in wireless, and the continued ramp-up of Homes and Enterprise offerings.

Besides, it sees Reliance Retail Ventures Ltd (RRVL) to deliver 12 per cent revenue CAGR over FY26-28E, driven by a mix of store rollouts, improved productivity, and scale-up of hyper-local offerings. The faster ramp-up of lower-margin businesses could weigh on blended Ebitda margin, driving 10 per cent Ebitda CAGR over FY26-28, MOFSL said.

"After a subdued FY25, RIL’s O2C Ebitda improved in FY26 but was hit by higher crude premiums and high freight and insurance costs due to the West Asia conflict. Going ahead, we expect only a modest recovery over FY26-28. Our FY28E consolidated EBITDA for O2C and E&P is broadly similar to FY24," MOFSL said.

This brokerage suggested 'Buy' and a target of Rs 1,655 on RIL. 

"NE contribution, new drivers (RI/RCPL) and huge petchem capacity addition shall drive growth. Our Golden Refining era thesis for $10+/bbl in GRM is intact. NE rollout to not only add 50 per cent-plus to PAT, but also re-rate valuation, including O2C, given its net zero-carbon target by 2035. Retain ‘BUY’ with a target of Rs 1,765," Nuvama said.

Emkay Global retained 'Buy' on RIL with a target of Rs 1,680. It said the deployment of an initial fleet of advanced NVIDIA GB300 GPUs, R-Intelligence has signalled its intent to move vertically beyond standard data center colocation into a dedicated GPU-as-a-service and sovereign hosting framework. 

"This layer is reinforced by a strategic joint venture with Meta, allowing JPL to host open-source LLaMA models and offer customized fine-tuning services to external enterprises. Jio’s forward-looking priorities focus on migrating its entire base to 5G by FY30, commercializing network slicing for enterprise and consumer segments, and evaluating a Low Earth Orbit satellite constellation," it said.