SUMMARY

Uday Kotak, Founder and Director of Kotak Mahindra Bank, warned India Inc. at the CII Annual Business Summit 2026 that the world could be heading towards a major economic shock due to the ongoing Iran conflict. He said the global economic order had entered a volatile “tribal” phase and urged businesses and policymakers to adopt a mindset of “strategic paranoia”.

His comments come at a time when Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged Indians to go back to work from home, online meetings, and reduced travel and other such practices that were followed during the coronavirus pandemic. 

Kotak said the direct economic impact of the conflict involving Iran had remained largely muted over the past eight weeks, but that period was ending. “We haven't seen the impact of the war in two months, but now it's coming, and it's coming big,” Kotak warned.

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“You are not far away from the shock unless the Iran war stops tomorrow morning. We need to get ready for tough times rather than waiting for the shock to hit us.”

He said the world was moving away from the collaborative “Davos mindset” towards a pre-1945 phase in which countries compete for control over trade routes and physical assets. Kotak pointed to concerns around the Strait of Malacca and said the AI revolution and wider geopolitical shifts had made such strategic chokepoints even more significant, with the potential to unsettle economies far away.

“We are seeing a mindset of who will control what,” Kotak said. “In a tribal world, it matters who controls assets. India needs to be real, strategic, and smart.” He also flagged India’s exposure to rising oil prices, saying the Current Account Deficit (CAD) was manageable at -1% when oil was at $60 a barrel, but could widen to -2.5% if oil rose to $100 a barrel.

Kotak ended by calling for what he described as a “low-cost reshaping” of the Indian economy. “We should prepare for paranoia before the event,” Kotak concluded. “Let's move as people, businesses, and policymakers to work more than our talk.” His address focused on the risks from the Iran conflict, a changing global order, and India’s vulnerability to higher oil prices.

Published on: May 12, 2026 3:17 PM IST