A new study published in the journal Nature warns that climate change could make large and destructive hailstorms significantly more common by the end of the century, potentially increasing global hail-related damage by up to 42%.

Scientists from Peking University found that while a warmer atmosphere may reduce the number of small hailstones, it could create conditions that allow larger hailstones to survive and reach the ground, causing greater damage to homes, vehicles, crops, and infrastructure.

The findings come weeks after a severe hailstorm struck Springfield city in Missouri, the US, where hailstones reportedly reached the size of baseballs and grapefruits, damaging buildings, smashing vehicles, and injuring residents.

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What does the new report say? 

In a study published in the journal Nature on May 27, scientists from Peking University warned that large hail could become more common in a warming world. 

"Here we show a 36.5–42.1% increase in global hailstorm-induced damage potential by the late twenty-first century, with the magnitude determined by the emission scenario," the research paper states. 

The researchers created a computer simulation that understands the process of hail formation within clouds. The model incorporated meteorological factors such as temperature, humidity, and winds.

The scientists took data from more than 14,000 real hailstorms worldwide from 2014 to 2021 and then applied it to future climate scenarios. The results were surprising. 

The dual effect of climate change is that warmer air can hold more water vapor (moisture), providing more material for hailstones to grow. On the other hand, a warmer atmosphere creates a thicker layer below where temperatures are sufficient to melt hailstones. 

According to lead researcher Qinghong Zhang, small hailstones melt completely in this warm layer, turning into raindrops. However, larger hailstones do not melt as quickly. They reach the ground as much larger fragments. This may reduce the incidence of hail, but the hail that does fall will be larger and more destructive. 

The threat differs in the north and south. This threat is not uniform across all regions. Studies indicate that the risk of large hail will increase in areas farther from the equator, i.e., at higher altitudes. However, the risk of hail may decrease in tropical and subtropical regions. The primary reason for this is the rapid increase in temperatures in polar regions. This strengthens the upwelling winds in storm clouds. These stronger winds lift the hailstones higher, allowing them to grow for longer and become larger. 

"Our results arise from hailstone trajectory simulations conducted under historical and future scenarios, driven by EC-Earth ensemble outputs that are cross-validated through multimodel comparisons. Globally, increased low-level temperature and specific humidity drive a shift towards larger hailstones, with the frequency of ≥30-mm-diameter hailstones rising by 37.9–51.8% and

What impact will this have on India and South Asia? 

This change could also be felt in South Asia, including India. Regions like North India, Rajasthan, Punjab, and Haryana, which already experience thunderstorms and hailstorms during the pre-monsoon season, may see an increase in the number of large hailstones. 

This is a major concern for farmers, as it could cause significant damage to crops, plantations, and livestock. On the other hand, hail events may decrease in some southern and eastern parts of the country, but overall weather uncertainty will increase. 

David Faranda, a climate scientist at France's National Center for Scientific Research, says this study makes a significant contribution to understanding climate change and the threat of hail. He said the researchers have effectively integrated the laws of physics with climate models. However, some experts believe hail is a purely local phenomenon. 

Global climate models cannot accurately model hail on such a small scale. Nevertheless, when compared with data from China and the United States over the past decades, the researchers say their results are reliable. If temperatures continue to rise, large hail will become more common in many regions by the end of the 21st century. This will increase property damage, insurance claims, and agricultural losses. 

In cities, parked cars, solar panels, and building roofs will be particularly affected. Scientist Zhang says this is a clear warning: if we don't control global warming, large hailstones will become a major problem in many areas. In a warming world, hailstones will become larger instead of melting.