India was counting on an early monsoon this year. The Indian Meteorological Department had forecast the southwest monsoon's arrival over Kerala on May 26, five days ahead of the normal 1 June date, and welcome news for a country in the grip of punishing heat. That date has come and gone, but the monsoon has not arrived.

The new window is June 2 to 4, one to three days past the usual date, and a full week behind the forecast that had briefly raised hopes across the country.

Why the forecast slipped

The southwest monsoon accounts for nearly 70% of India's annual rainfall, and its onset over Kerala marks the official start of the season across the country. IMD's early prediction had seemed credible; atmospheric conditions at the time supported it. But the monsoon does not run on a fixed schedule. It responds to a shifting web of ocean temperatures, wind patterns, and atmospheric pressure systems that can change within days.

As of Monday, May 25, the three conditions required for IMD to officially declare a monsoon onset had not been met. At least 60% of 14 designated weather stations across Kerala must record 2.5 mm or more of rainfall for two consecutive days, alongside specific wind and cloud cover thresholds. None of those criteria was fulfilled.

Such gaps between long-range statistical forecasts and short-term real-world conditions are not unusual. What is also notable this year is that even when the monsoon does arrive, its initial intensity may be subdued, with no sharp surge in rainfall and a potentially slower northward progression than usual.

Kerala wet, the declaration still pending

The absence of an official onset declaration does not mean Kerala is dry. The IMD has issued yellow alerts for four districts, Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha, and Ernakulam, advising caution for heavy rain and thundershowers. The first three remain under alert through Wednesday. Thunderstorm and heavy rainfall warnings have been extended across Kerala and Lakshadweep through May 26-27, with the heavy rainfall warning running into the weekend.

The north is still waiting

While Kerala gets drenched, the rest of India is enduring some of the worst heat of the season. Severe heatwave conditions have gripped north, central, and western India for roughly seven to eight days. East Uttar Pradesh, Vidarbha, East Madhya Pradesh, and West Rajasthan are among the worst-hit regions. New Delhi has recorded temperatures past 45°C on multiple days, with nights hovering around 30°C.

Published on: May 26, 2026 3:36 PM IST