Power demand to rise by 5-5.5% in 2026-27 against a tepid 1% in 2025-26, which had been compressed by weather-related disruptions, with a forecast of sub-par rainfall amidst a potential El Nino, according to rating agency ICRA.

  India’s power demand hit a record 256 GW on April 25, 2026, driven by an intense heatwave and hotter nights. However, it has stabilised in the first week of May due to lower temperatures.

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  The surge in power demand is supported by the agricultural and household sectors given the expectation of sub-par rainfall amidst a potential El Nino, along with demand from industries as well as from emerging sources like electric vehicles and data centres.

  The all-India thermal plant load factor (PLF) level fell to 65-66% in 2025-26 amid demand moderation and is likely to remain around 65% in 2026-27, given the healthy growth in generation expected from the renewable sources and 6-GW capacity addition likely in the thermal segment.

 Thermal to remain an important player  

  ICRA expects the overall addition of generation capacity to be around 50 GW in 2026-27, within which the thermal segment is likely to add around 6 GW and the balance largely to be contributed by the RE segment

  “The thermal power sector in India is witnessing a revived investment emphasis, even as the renewable capacity continues to expand at a rapid pace. Thermal power acts as a reliable base-load supply, aiding grid stability, amid expectations of power demand growth,” said Ankit Jain, Vice President & Co-Group Head - Corporate Ratings, ICRA.

  The renewable energy segment would remain the key driver of power generation capacity addition going forward; the thermal segment has seen an increase in under-construction capacity over the past few quarters, which currently stands at over 45 GW.

  This is also reflected in the new project announcements by public sector undertakings and private power producers as well as long-term power purchase bids called by state distribution utilities after a long period of limited activity.

  “Nonetheless, timely commissioning of the thermal projects under execution also remains key, given the long gestation period associated and risk of delays from the domestic boiler, turbine and generator (BTG) equipment manufacturers with their elevated order book position,” he said.

 Negative outlook for power distribution

  The average spot power tariffs in the day ahead market (DAM) of the Indian Energy Exchange moderated to Rs. 3.8 per unit in 2025-26 from Rs. 4.4 per unit in 2024-25, given the slowdown in demand growth and significant increase in supply amid healthy addition in RE capacity. Further, the coal stock level for the domestic power plants has been comfortable at around 19 days as on April 8, 2026, following improved local supply.

  The book losses of the distribution companies at the all-India level improved in 2024-25 over 2023-24 with moderation in the gap between cost of supply and tariff realisation. The gross debt for state-owned discoms reduced to Rs. 7.1 trillion as of March 2025 from Rs. 7.4 trillion as of March 2024. However, such high debt levels are unsustainable for discoms, given their current revenues and profitability.

  The tariff orders for 2026-27 have been issued in 17 out of 28 states as of April 2026. Despite the loss-making operations of discoms, tariff hikes approved for 2026-27 remain muted across most states.