From 2011 to 2021, exit polls have swung wildly — sometimes nailing the result and missing it by a mile on other occasions.
As the date for the West Bengal election result nears, the exit poll predictions are already making noise. Before you take these numbers at face value, it is important to note that Bengal has a reputation for humbling the most confident pollsters.
From 2011 to 2021, exit polls have swung wildly — sometimes nailing the result and missing it by a mile on other occasions. So as TMC, BJP, and the Left Front await the final verdict, we look back at the track record of exit polls in Bengal elections — and what the numbers this time are really telling us.
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What happened in 2021?
In 2021, exit polls broadly predicted a win for the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), though
Major pollsters such as ABP-CVoter, IPSOS and Today's Chanakya estimated a TMC+ win between 150-190 seats, whereas the BJP+ was projected to bag around 95-120 seats.
In reality, the TMC secured a sweeping victory with 213 seats out of 294, whereas the BJP won 77 seats. The Left-Congress alliance failed to make a major comeback, marking Mamata Banerjee's third term as Chief Minister.
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What happened in 2016?
Most exit polls predicted another victory for TMC, with pollsters like India Today-Axis, ABP-Nielsen and News 24-Today's Chanakya predicting that the Mamata-led TMC would win anywhere between 160 and over 240 seats. The Left-Congress combine was expected to emerge as the main opposition, whereas it was projected that the BJP would remain marginal.
According to the final results, the TMC won 211 seats, whereas the Left-Congress alliance secured 77 seats. The BJP could secure only 3 seats in this election, reinforcing TMC's dominance in the state.
What happened in 2011?
This election was historic as it put an end to the 34-year rule of the Left Front government in Bengal. Exit polls by Star News-Nielsen and CNN-IBN-Week predicted a landslide majority for the TMC and a distant second spot for the Left Front. They predicted only 2 seats for the BJP in West Bengal.
The TMC-Congress alliance got a landslide majority with 226 of the 294 seats. While the TMC alone won 184 seats, the Congress bagged 42. The Left Front folded to 62 seats, with the CPI(M) losing its previous dominance.
In the last three elections, the exit polls proved to be spot on with their projections for Bengal. So, what do the exit polls for the West Bengal assembly election 2026 say?
West Bengal election exit poll 2026
In a massive setback to Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC), pollsters have predicted a clear majority for the BJP in Bengal. People's Pulse and Janmat Polls, however, are the only exceptions as they have projected another term for Chief Minister Mamata.
| Pollsters | TMC+ | BJP | Left Front+ | Congress | Others |
| Matrize | 125-140 | 146-161 | -- | -- | 6-10 |
| P-MARQ | 118-138 | 150-175 | -- | -- | 2-6 |
| People's Pulse | 177-187 | 95-110 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Chanakya | 130-140 | 150-160 | -- | -- | -- |
| JVC | 131-152 | 138-159 | -- | -- | -- |
| Praja Poll | 85-110 | 178-200 | -- | -- | -- |
| Poll Diary | 131-152 | 138-159 | -- | 0-2 | -- |
| Janmat Polls | 195-205 | 80-90 | 1-2 | 0-1 | -- |
| Poll of Exit Polls | 147 | 137 | 2 | -- | 6 |
Whether exit polls prove right or wrong remains to be seen as the official results will only be released on May 4.
Published on: May 1, 2026 8:30 AM IST
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