Foreign brokerage Citi in its fresh note said Vodafone Idea Ltd (VIL) is a high-risk buy idea with a target price of Rs 14, hinting at 37.5 per cent potential upside. The brokerage said the chapter of regulatory uncertainty is now largely behind Vodafone Idea and that the telecom operator is better positioned to close its pending Rs 25,000 crore bank debt raise.

This would, in turn, enable VIL to commence execution of its Rs 45,000 crore three-year capex plan that was outlined by the company management in the January strategy update.  A closure of the debt funding will therefore now be key to monitor, Citi said.

"We await further clarity from the company on the accounting treatment of the reassessed AGR dues given the absence of interest accrual. Notwithstanding this, we incorporate the NPV savings from the AGR reassessment into our valuation. We also adjust our forecasts to reflect our assumption of a delayed tariff hike, consistent with our recently-modified Bharti estimates. We also lower our target EV/Ebitda multiple by a notch to 12x, maintaining a discount to Bharti," Citi said. 

The foreign broking firm said FY27-28E Ebitda estimates for VIL are revised down by 6-7 per cent as a result of the changes, even as its price target remained unchanged at Rs 14. It noted that a closure of VIL's debt funding would also have meaningful positive implications for Indus Towers.

Citi said it rated VIL as high risk as its balance sheet is still over-leveraged and continued government support remains critical. Key downside risks that could prevent the shares from reaching Citi's target price include limited AGR relief from the government; competitive intensity worsening, leading to disappointing tariff hikes in future, no reduction in subscriber churn and lower-than-expected pace of 4G/5G subscriber additions.  

Meanwhile it noted that the years-long AGR saga for Voda Idea has finally concluded, with the government reassessing the company’s AGR dues at Rs 64,000 crore as of December 2025, which is 20 per cent below the Rs 80,500 crore that was outstanding as per the company. 

"With no interest accruing and the effective 10-year repayment moratorium remaining in place (99 per cent of the dues are payable over FY36-41), this meaningfully improves the economics of the liability, reducing VI’s effective AGR burden further from an estimated Rs 35,000 crore to Rs 26,000 crore on an NPV basis," it said on May 1.