Exit poll projections for the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections have triggered intense political debate, with actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerging as a potential disruptor even as the ruling DMK-led alliance is widely expected to retain power.

MDMK chief Vaiko, an ally of the DMK, described TVK as a “force to reckon with,” indicating that the party could deliver unexpected results in its debut election. “TVK will be a force to reckon with and may produce surprises. There is a possibility of a swing among students and first-time voters in favour of TVK,” Vaiko said, highlighting the growing buzz around the actor-politician’s entry into electoral politics.

Exit polls broadly suggest that Chief Minister M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance is likely to return to power, though with a reduced margin compared to its 2021 victory. Most projections place the ruling coalition close to or slightly above the majority mark in the 234-member Assembly.

According to surveys by P-Marq and Matrize, the DMK+ alliance is projected to secure between 122 and 132 seats, while the AIADMK-led alliance could win 87–100 seats. TVK is expected to bag around 10–12 seats, marking a notable debut performance. Peoples Pulse has projected a stronger showing for the DMK+, estimating 125–145 seats, with AIADMK+ at 65–80 seats and TVK gaining between 18 and 24 seats.

However, not all projections point in the same direction. JVC has predicted a potential comeback for the AIADMK, projecting 128–147 seats for the party and its allies. Axis My India has presented the most divergent scenario, estimating 98–120 seats for TVK, which, if realised, could turn the election into a highly competitive three-way contest.

Vaiko also acknowledged the wide variation across exit polls, cautioning against drawing firm conclusions. “Exit polls don’t follow a single trend. Some say DMK will form the government, another favours AIADMK, and one even suggests TVK could come to power. We have to wait and see,” he said.

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At the same time, he emphasised that the Dravidian movement would remain a dominant and enduring force in Tamil Nadu politics regardless of electoral outcomes. “The Dravidian movement has been built on sacrifice and struggle. It will remain a permanent force in this soil. The BJP cannot shake its foundations,” Vaiko added.

Tamil Nadu went to the polls in a single phase on April 23, with counting scheduled for May 4. While the DMK-led alliance is aiming for a second consecutive term, the AIADMK is seeking a comeback. Vijay, meanwhile, is attempting a historic political debut, hoping to follow in the footsteps of former actor-turned-leaders such as C.N. Annadurai and M.G. Ramachandran.

Despite the wide-ranging projections, analysts agree on one point: TVK’s entry has altered the electoral landscape by reshaping vote shares and introducing a new variable into Tamil Nadu’s traditionally bipolar politics. However, as with all exit polls, the final outcome will only be confirmed when votes are counted.

Published on: May 2, 2026 2:14 PM IST