The southwest monsoon made its scheduled arrival over the Kerala coast on June 4, advancing with rapid, promising momentum across the southern peninsula. By late June, the entire country should have been under a thick, sweeping blanket of rain-bearing clouds. Instead, meteorologists and high-altitude imagery are tracking an unexpected atmospheric stall. 

Vast stretches of central, western, and northwestern India are currently sitting under clear, dry skies. The latest infrared data captured by the INSAT-3DR satellite exposes a striking anomaly: the deep, convective cloud bands that traditionally fuel the summer monsoon have almost entirely vanished over key agricultural states. While dense cloud covers persist over the northeastern region and sections of the southern peninsula, the country’s interior is visibly bare. 

This breakdown has triggered a massive drop in precipitation. Between June 4 and June 26, India recorded a nationwide rainfall deficit of 45 percent. The shortage is hitting localised economies intensely. Madhya Pradesh has received nearly half of its average rainfall, while states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala face severe shortages. Gujarat remains the worst hit, with rainfall plunging 84 percent below seasonal norms. 

The crisis is not driven by a lack of ocean moisture. Both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal hold plenty of water vapour. Instead, the problem stems from a large-scale atmospheric tug-of-war playing out several kilometers above the surface. 

The westerly jet stream — a fast-moving river of air in the upper atmosphere — has shifted much further south than normal. This unusual position is actively suppressing the upper-level easterly jet, which functions as the primary engine driving monsoon circulation.

Under normal conditions, the easterly jet causes air to rise, spawning the widespread thunderstorms that irrigate the subcontinent. The displaced westerly winds are squashing this mechanism, stopping clouds from forming despite the heavy moisture waiting below. 

Compounding the problem is a broader climatic headwind. In its official assessment, the weather bureau noted that global ocean temperatures are actively interfering with the regional cycle. 

"Currently, El Nino conditions are present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen further," stated the IMD bulletin. 

There is, however, a critical shift developing on the horizon. Weather models indicate that a large tropical weather system is forming north of the equator over the eastern Indian Ocean. Forecasters expect this system to move into the Bay of Bengal over the next four to seven days. 

If the system gathers enough strength, it will inject fresh tropical moisture into the stalled monsoon circulation. This could trigger a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal and potentially spark a middle-tropospheric vortex over western India — a specific weather phenomenon known to bring heavy rains to Maharashtra and Gujarat.

Meteorologists are monitoring these developments closely, as the system offers the first real chance to restart the stalled monsoon and push it into the remaining parts of northwest India by early July.

Published on: Jun 26, 2026 9:10 PM IST