El Nino has arrived faster than many forecasters expected, adding to concerns over India's monsoon after rainfall fell well below normal in the opening weeks of the season and weather agencies warned of a heightened risk of deficient rains.

When India Today first reported on the developing El Nino in May, both the warming Pacific Ocean and the prospect of a weaker monsoon remained forecasts. By mid-June, both have moved closer to reality.

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On June 11, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) formally declared the onset of El Nino and issued an advisory placing the odds of it strengthening into a very strong event by winter at 63 per cent.

India's weather office has taken a more cautious view, continuing to classify Pacific conditions as neutral while saying they are "transitioning toward El Nino".

The emerging weather pattern is developing against the backdrop of exceptionally warm oceans. According to NOAA and the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, May 2026 was effectively tied with 2024 as the warmest May on record for global ocean temperatures.

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Monsoon outlook darkens

India's monsoon outlook has already deteriorated.

On May 29, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) revised its seasonal rainfall forecast to 90 per cent of the long-period average, down from the 92 per cent forecast issued on April 13.

The IMD also raised the probability of a deficient monsoon from 35 per cent to 60 per cent and estimated an 84 per cent chance of rainfall ending below normal or worse. The monsoon core zone, covering much of India's rain-fed agricultural land, is considered most vulnerable.

The season has so far unfolded in line with those concerns.

The monsoon reached Kerala on June 4, three days later than usual but still within the normal range. However, rainfall subsequently weakened. According to IMD data, all-India rainfall was 26 per cent below normal between June 1 and June 10 and remained subdued through June 15.

The rainfall deficit has been unevenly distributed. IMD gridded data shows the largest shortfalls across central, western and southern India, while parts of eastern and north-eastern India recorded near-normal or above-normal rainfall.

Another potential support factor has also weakened.

In April, the IMD had expected a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a climate pattern associated with warmer waters near East Africa that can help draw additional moisture towards India and partially offset the effects of El Nino.

In its June 11 outlook, however, the IMD downgraded expectations to neutral conditions, with only a weak positive phase likely later in the season.

Government moves to prepare

The changing outlook has prompted concern within the Union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare.

According to a report by Down To Earth, the ministry has asked the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), state agricultural universities and state agriculture departments to revise contingency plans for an El Niño year ahead of the peak kharif season.

The revised plans are due by June 20.

The report said authorities are assessing factors such as irrigation coverage, soil conditions, cropping patterns, and groundwater availability to identify districts most vulnerable to drought and agricultural stress in the event of a weak monsoon.

The bigger test lies ahead

The implications extend beyond rainfall.

A below-normal monsoon could affect farm output, rural incomes, and food prices in the months ahead. While forecasts earlier this year pointed to those risks, the key variables have since moved from projections to observable trends.

El Nino has formed, the monsoon outlook has been lowered, and rainfall has already slipped below normal in the early weeks of the season.

The next challenge for policymakers will be managing agricultural planning, food supplies, and price pressures before the Pacific warming event potentially peaks later this year.

(With inputs from Dipur Rai)
 

Published on: Jun 16, 2026 9:21 PM IST