Coal India Ltd shares jumped 5 per cent in Tuesday's trade, as stock analysts said the PSU delivered a decent performance in the March quarter, mainly supported by higher e-auction volumes. Coal India's focus on increasing coal-washer capacity will improve its market share in domestic coking and non-coking coal, analysts said noting that the company management remained focused on expanding its coal mining operations, which will be funded through internal accruals.

Following the development, the stock rose 4.63 per cent to hit a high of Rs 473.90. The stock was also supported by Rs 5.25 per share final dividend announced by the company, which was in line with expectations. With this, total dividend declared in FY26 stood at Rs 26.75 per share.

"We expect Coal India to post a 4 per cent volume CAGR in FY26-28E, while a higher share of e-auction volumes with better premium will support overall NSR and margins. This is expected to translate into a CAGR of 5 per cent and 12 per cent in revenue and Ebitda over FY26-28E, respectively," it said.

The brokerage suggested a 'Buy' with a target of Rs 530 on the stock, which suggested a 17 per cent potential upside.

Emkay Global said Coal India has continued to benefit from strong e-auction realisations over the past few quarters, with premiums consistently trending above consensus expectations. 

It noted that the PSU's premiums moderated sharply sequentially in Q4 and remained well below the Q3 levels despite elevated thermal coal prices driven by geopolitical tensions in West Asia. This was largely due to select subsidiaries lowering reserve prices. 

"We expect e-auction premiums to sustain at 55 per cent over FY27-28E. Additionally, we model in 6 per cent volume CAGR over FY27-28E, with incremental support from a likely reduction in Indonesia’s coal production target to 600mt in 2026 (vs 790mt in 2025). Accordingly, we maintain ADD on COAL with unchanged target price of Rs 475," Emkay said. 

Coal India reported consolidated net revenue growth of 6 per cent YoY, due to adjustment made to revenues on account of statutory levies on coal production and sales collected in a principal capacity. As a part of this adjustment, revenue has increased because of which it appears inflated against consensus projections, JM Financial said.