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The Next Platform: In-depth coverage of high end computing

Uncle Sam Awards $2 Billion-Plus To Quantum Companies, But Wants A Cut Oak Ridge Starts Weaving Together A Quantum, Classical HPC, And AI System Stack Dell Bulks Up Hardware As AI Infrastructure Shifts To On-Premises Cisco Wins Over AI Customers With Merchant Silicon And Optics With Its IPO Done, Cerebras Can Get Back To Pushing The AI Envelope HPE Throws VM Users A Lifeline, Unifying Containers And VM Management In Cloud Stack OpenAI, Microsoft And Friends Build A Better, More Scalable Ethernet Compute And Memory Price Hikes Drive IT Spending Way Higher Sometimes, Air Is The Only Way For AI Systems To Keep Their Cool Arista Rides AI Scale Out Networks, Moves Into Scale Across, And Awaits Scale Up If You Can Make A Compute Engine, You Can Sell A Compute Engine Cleveland Clinic Simulates Large Proteins With Quantum-Centric Supercomputing Broadcom Helps CPU And XPU Makers Go Vertical With Compute Microsoft Committed To Doubling AI Infrastructure In Two Years Google Is A Full Stack AI Player, And Is Playing Well AWS Will Be An OEM, Just Like Google And Maybe Microsoft New Google Networks Tuned Up For GenAI Inference And Training Microsoft And OpenAI Remain Friends, Are Looking To Hook Up With Others AI-Driven CPU Shortage Saves Intel’s Financial Cookies The GenAI Battle Shifts From Frontier Models To Agentic Platforms With TPU 8, Google Makes GenAI Systems Much Better, Not Just Bigger Cisco Scales Out Quantum Systems With A Quantum Network Switch The Second Time Will Be The IPO Charm For Cerebras Imagine An Army Of AI Minions Handling Incident Response AI Will Soon Drive A Third Of TSMC’s Business Bechtolsheim & Friends Breathe Life Into Pluggable Optics One Last Time How HPC And AI Digital Twins Accelerate Quantum Error Correction The Embrace Of AI In Design Transforms Cadence And Its Customers Nvidia Brings The Power Of Open Source AI Models To Quantum Computing Building The Imperfect Beast For Enterprises, GPUs Need Virtualization As Much As CPUs Ever Did CoreWeave Takes As Much Financial Engineering As It Does Datacenter Design Contemplating Meta’s Homegrown MTIA Compute Engine Roadmap Most Neoclouds, Sovereigns, And Enterprises Will Buy, Not Build, Their AI Stacks Broadcom And Google Benefit Mightily From Anthropic’s Meteoric Growth Rebellions AI Rings Up The Money To Rack Up AI Inference Systems Nvidia Software Pushes MLPerf Inference Benchmarks To New Highs Broadcom Makes Its Pitch To Run Kubernetes On VMware VCF The $2 Billion Nvidia Deal With Marvell Is About A Lot More Than NVLink Fusion Classiq Says Quantum Is On Its Way, But Patience Is Needed Demonstrating The Scientific Usefulness Of Quantum Systems We Need Servers – Lots Of Servers. . . . Arm Comes Full Circle With Homegrown, AI-Tuned Server CPU Riding The Memory Boom And Trying To Avoid The Bust Data Analytics Helps Make The Mighty Lionesses Roar Driving Down The AI System Roadmap With Nvidia The Open Agentic AI World According To Nvidia Nvidia Finally Admits Why It Shelled Out $20 Billion For Groq Nvidia Says OpenClaw Is To Agentic AI What GPT Was To Chattybots IBM Unrolls Blueprint For Quantum-Classical HPC Computing Women Get Data-Driven Health Boost As The FA Tackles Sports Science Four Months Into Its Comeback, Zapata Stakes Its Claim In Quantum Software Eridu Cuts To The AI Networking Chase With High Radix Switch System HPE Works Harder And Smarter To Chase Datacenter Profits We Need A Proper AI Inference Benchmark Test How AI Is Boosting Gender Equality In High Performance Racing Custom Compute Engine Biz Growing More Than Marvell Ever Hoped Broadcom May Become The Biggest Counterbalance To Nvidia Ayar Labs Gets $500 Million To Ramp Photonics Into 2028 AI Systems With Cisco Outshift, Agentic AI Is Teed Up For the Internet Of Cognition Nvidia Sees The Light On Silicon Photonics And Maybe Optical Switching AI Servers Finally Dominate Dell’s Systems Business VAST Data: What Controls The Data Is More Important Than What Stores It So Far, Nobody Turns Tokens Into Money Like Nvidia SambaNova Pits Its Engineering Against Nvidia For Agentic AI Some More Game Theory, This Time On The AMD-Meta Platforms Deal AMD Says “Helios” Racks And MI400 Series GPUs On Track For 2H 2026 CPU-Only Compute Still Matters To A Lot Of HPC Centers Taalas Etches AI Models Onto Transistors To Rocket Boost Inference Some Game Theory On That Nvidia-Meta Platforms Partnership AI Eats The World, And Most Of Its Flash Storage The Memory Crunch Pinches Cisco’s Profits Only A Few AI Platforms Can Survive The Greatest AI Show On Earth Cisco Doubles Up The Switch Bandwidth To Take On AI Scale Out And Eventually Scale Up Datacenter Spending Forecast Revised Upwards – Yet Again The Twin Engine Strategy That Propels AWS Is Working Well With GenAI Turbochargers, Google Is Shifting Its Cloud Into A Higher Gear AMD Finally Makes More Money On GPUs Than CPUs In A Quarter Dassault And Nvidia Bring Industrial World Models To Physical AI TACC Explores Mixed Precision And FP64 Emulation For HPC With Horizon Robotics Will Break AI infrastructure: Here's What Comes Next Oracle’s Financing Primes The OpenAI Pump Gartner Takes Another Stab At Forecasting AI Spending Microsoft Is More Dependent On OpenAI Than The Converse Big Blue Poised To Peddle Lots Of On Premises GenAI Microsoft Takes On Other Clouds With “Braga” Maia 200 AI Compute Engines Nvidia’s $2 Billion Investment In CoreWeave Is A Drop In A $250 Billion Bucket Intel Is Still Struggling In The Datacenter, But It Could Get Better Is Nvidia Assembling The Parts For Its Next Inference Platform? TSMC Has No Choice But To Trust The Sunny AI Forecasts Of Its Customers Cerebras Inks Transformative $10 Billion Inference Deal With OpenAI By Decade’s End, AI Will Drive More Than Half Of All Chip Sales Startup Quantum Elements Brings AI, Digital Twins To Quantum Computing D-Wave Makes Gate-Model Power Move With Quantum Circuits Buy Building The Future Of Software In The AI-Native Era Arista Modular Switches Aim At Scale Across Networks, Hit Scale Out, Too NextSilicon Takes Aim At CPUs And GPUs With “Maverick-2” Dataflow Engine How HPC Is Igniting Discoveries In Dinosaur Locomotion – And Beyond Oracle First In Line For AMD “Altair” MI450 GPUs, “Helios” Racks
The Current AI Networking Wave Will Be A Tsunami Of Money By 2027
2026-02-13 · via The Next Platform: In-depth coverage of high end computing

$230.70. That’s it.

If you take the $34.6 billion that Arista Networks has made in product revenue since it was founded way back in 2004 by Andy Bechtolsheim, David Cheriton, and Kenneth Duda and divide it by the 150 million cumulative ports that it has shipped (with the product ramp really starting in 2010 after the company dropped out of stealth mode in 2009) This is a remarkable number give the fact that Arista has tended to ship very expensive ports that often cost $1,000 or more without services on top of them.

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It looks like somebody has been getting some very deep discounts on those ports, and it also looks like the big customers using Arista switches are not paying for the network operating system, which represents more than half the value of the switch back in the old days before we started disaggregating the software from the switch.

And even if you layer on the costs of the $6.4 billion in services that Arista has sold over that time – call it a decade and a half for the bulk of those services sales – then that still only drives it up to $273.60 per port.

And still, when it comes to high speed ports, Arista has been able to eat a lot of the lunch and some of the dinner of Cisco Systems, and it is Arista’s championship of merchant silicon and its willingness to support the network operating systems created by the hyperscalers and cloud builders that has compelled Cisco to launch its Silicon One effort and also to create special whiteboxes (the Cisco 8000 series) that it can sell against Arista switching and routing iron.

As far as we can tell from the financial report released by Arista this week, the business of this company is accelerating and it will be breaking through $10 billion a year in sales two years early. (Which is what chief executive officer Jayshree Ullal said could happen a few months ago.) Back end and front end networks in AI systems – the former being used to glue together compute engines, the latter being used to feed data from the outside world into those clusters – are driving revenues and perhaps profits.

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But Arista’s nascent campus switching business is hitting its targets and its core cloud and hyperscale switching market – the one that the company was founded to take on – is stable over the long view of a few years, its routing business is growing in the double digits, and its edge business is chugging along. And it looks like these trajectories will keep going out into 2026 and beyond.

In the quarter ended in December, Arista had a tad under $2.1 billion in product revenues, up 30.3 percent, with services revenues growing at a 21.6 percent clip to hit $392.1 million. Software and services together came to 17.1 percent of revenues, which works out to $425.4 million, up 20.4 percent, and if you back out software subscriptions, you get $33.3 million in the December quarter, up only 7.7 percent.

Like we said, the big customers who have spent a fortune on NOS software and telemetry and management tools for their datacenters are not using Arista’s EOS stack, so the subscription revenue is low. But that does not mean that the vast majority of Arista’s more than 10,000 customers (we think it is very close to 11,000 customers) are not using its Extensible Operating System. It is hard to say if it is a majority by customer or not. What does matter is that Arista is agnostic when it comes to NOSes. In fact, it lets customers pick their NOSes. (You know what they say: You can pick your friends, you can pick your NOS, but you can’t pick your friend’s NOS. . . . )

Total revenue for Q4 2025 was $2.49 billion, up 28.9 percent, operating income was $1.03 billion, up 29.2 percent, and net income was $956 million, up 19.3 percent and representing a very healthy 38.4 percent of revenue (a little less than average, frankly).

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Of the slightly more than $9 billion in sales that Arista had for 2025, 48 percent of that came from the “cloud titans,” what we call the hyperscalers and cloud builders. That works out to $4.32 billion, up 28.6 percent compared to 2024’s sales to these elite customers. Enterprise & Financial customers represented 32 percent of the Arista pie in 2025, which works out to $2.88 billion, up 17.6 percent year on year. The service providers and neocloud group (which now includes Apple and Oracle), represented $1.8 billion in sales in 2025, up 51.3 percent.

Arista ended the year with $10.74 billion in the bank, an increase of 29.4 percent from a year ago, and has a revenue backlog of $6.8 billion. It doesn’t have to build expensive datacenters or buy GPUs, so it can actually hang onto its cash hoard and make strategic acquisitions as it sees fit, and spend some of that money to prebuy components like flash and main memory as supplies keep tightening.

Here is how the revenues for 2025 for Arista stack up to the prior dozen years for which we have financial data:

Arista went public in 2014, so it is hard to get data that covers 2012 and earlier because it was not in the filing documents for the initial public offering.

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What does matter is how the company is growing its revenue per customer and that it has expanded its sales to its key biggest customers, Microsoft and Meta Platforms. It also matters that this year, according to Arista, it may have one or two more customers that comprise more than 10 percent of its revenues, which triggers a reporting requirement due to concentration risk from the US Security and Exchange Commission. Arista was burned when Meta Platforms – then known as Facebook – skipped the 200 Gb/sec Ethernet generation back in 2020 and 2021, as you can see from the numbers in the table above.

Arista only gives the breakdown of sales by customer type and the details for its big customers at the end of every year, so we never know what is going on until it is done. In 2025, Microsoft represented 26 percent of Arista’s sales, or $2.34 billion, which was an increase of 67.2 percent compared to the software and cloud giant’s spending in the prior year. Meta Platforms represented 16 percent of sales for the 2025 year, which works out to $1.44 billion, up 40.9 percent year on year. This is a relatively normal concentration of these two companies over the years since Meta Platforms joined the 10 percent club in 2019. Microsoft has been a 10 percenter for as long as there have been public numbers.

We like to try to figure out the portion of Arista’s revenues and operating income that are derived from datacenter products, and here is how we think that has changed over time:

Including both products and services, we reckon the datacenter drove $2.36 billion in sales in Q4 2025, up 28.9 percent, and operating income was $981 million, up 29.2 percent and representing 41.5 percent of that revenue.

We also like to break Arista’s sales down by product groups and here is what we think has happened over the past several years based on statements that the company has put out:

Arista had set a goal for itself of selling at least $1.5 billion in AI networking and at least $800 million in campus switching in 2025, and Ullal said that both of those goals were exceeded. Considering that Ullal also said that Arista would double its AI-related sales to $3.25 billion in 2026, we can back that out and know that it had around $1.63 billion in AI-related sales in 2025. We think Arista did around $815 million in campus switch sales this past year and the company said point blank that it will do somewhere around $1.25 billion in campus gear in 2026.

If you want to see our model’s numbers, shown in the chart above, here they are:

What this means is that the non-AI part of the Arista business will grow by 12.3 percent to $8 billion in 2026 if the company hits its $11.25 billion guidance, and if you back out the campus switching business, then the remainder – cloud switching, routing, edge and branch – will only grow by 7 percent to $6.75 billion. We wonder how much of this is about switching components away from enterprises and towards the AI systems, with memory and flash getting harder and harder to come by. Arista has to keep those accounts to get its volumes, and given that the price increases for components are out of its costs, presumably it can make the hyperscalers and cloud builders make up the difference. Probably not more than that, though.

If you take a longer view, as Ullal & Co do, the total addressable market for Arista just keeps getting bigger as its reaches out into campus, branch, and edge and adds on AI networking as a new category. The company is now chasing a TAM of $105 billion by 2029, which is a hell of a lot bigger than the $60 billion TAM was looking at a little more than two years ago.

The AI networking opportunity is enormous, as seen in the forecast for revenues by port speed for Ethernet switching from Dell’Oro Group:

The 1.6 TB/sec Ethernet wave is a tsunami that was a little wave, which will grow considerably this year and be a wall of water as tall as skyscrapers in 2027 and 2028. And The 3.2 Tb/sec wave will start in 2027 and be its own wall on top of 1.6 Tb/sec Ethernet switching gear from 2028 and beyond.

The amazing thing in this forecast is how 100 Gb/sec, 400 Gb/sec, and 800 Gb/sec devices will persist in the revenue stream out to the end of the decade, even as most of the money – being spent by hyperscalers, cloud builders, and model builders – goes towards switches with much faster ports.