Unprecedented extreme weather is no longer once-in-a-lifetime.

We live in an era when seasonal hurricanes have the potential to be nothing short of astronomical. Heat waves are not only the norm, but literally deadly. Lately, fears have grown that the upcoming El Niño — a cyclical climate phenomenon that can cause flooding, heat waves, and crop instability around the globe — could unleash devastation that’ll serve as a grim preview of things to come in our swiftly tilting global environment.

Now, new projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicate that the situation could become even more disastrous by the fall. As Gizmodo lays out, the data suggests we could be in for a “super” El Niño, with sea surface temperatures reaching an average of 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit above normal by November. As we approach the end of 2026, this number quite literally spikes off the top of NOAA’s chart; to say that we could be in for a pounding from this upcoming El Niño would be an understatement.

For those keeping track, the U.S. hasn’t seen a record-setting El Niño since the 1870s — and meteorologists wouldn’t be surprised if this projected one smashed those records. Humidity, drought, and flooding aside, there are very real implications for society and the economy. During the monstrous El Niño of 1877, everything from famine to epidemics wreaked havoc around the world. With global tensions already running high, it could be a historic stress test for a world already in chaos.

More on El Niño: Last Time an El Niño Was This Bad, It Killed 50 Million People