An estimated 1.8 billion people globally will be affected by metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) by 2050, according to a new study published in The Lancet.

Previously known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, MASLD is one of the most prevalent liver diseases. It is also rapidly growing: around 1.3 billion people lived with MASLD in 2023 – a 143% increase on 1990 figures. Due largely to population growth, the year 2050 will see a further 42% jump in prevalence, estimate the study’s authors.

High blood sugar is a leading driver of the disease, followed by a high BMI and smoking. As a result, it is often found in people who are overweight or have diabetes. Lifestyle changes can help manage and even improve MASLD, says the Mayo Clinic, which can otherwise develop over time into more serious liver disease - one of the 10 leading causes of death in the US.

Surprisingly, the study found that MASLD affects younger adults (35-39 years for males; 55-59 years for females) the most, while North Africa and the Middle East are currently the regions with the highest prevalence.

2. Global pandemic treaty deadline missed again

A deadline to finalize a global pandemic treaty has been missed for the second time. In March, World Health Organization (WHO) member states agreed to extend negotiations on Pathogen Access and Benefit Sharing (PABS), a key aspect of the WHO Pandemic Agreement. But discussions on 1 May ended in a call for further additional time.

PABS is a vital component, as it binds not only how countries share information on future pandemic-causing pathogens, but also what access they would have to future vaccines.

The stalling means that the WHO Pandemic Agreement cannot be ratified at the next World Health Assembly on 18 May, a situation that was described as “deeply regrettable” by the co-chairs of The Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, who pointed out that “if a new pathogen emerged today, the world remains largely unprepared for it”.

While Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General, remains confident that “through continued negotiations differences will be overcome,” he cautioned that member states “should continue approaching the outstanding issues with a sense of urgency because the next pandemic is a matter of when, not if”.

3. News in brief: Health stories from around the world

Hantavirus cases linked to cruise ship: The WHO says the public health risk from a hantavirus cluster linked to a cruise ship remains low, despite eight reported cases and three deaths across several countries. Hantavirus usually spreads through contact with infected rodents, though the Andes strain can in rare cases spread between people through close, prolonged contact. Health agencies are tracing passengers and expanding testing capacity.

Australia has become the 30th country to eliminate trachoma – the main infectious cause of blindness – as a public health problem. The WHO confirmed this "significant milestone in the health of Indigenous peoples and in global efforts to combat neglected tropical diseases" at the end of April.

Fluoride in drinking water does not reduce children's IQ or the cognitive abilities of adults, a new large-scale US study says. The findings contradict US Health Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr's concerns announced last year when he asked the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to revise its recommendation for fluoride to be added to water.

Over 100 million vaccine doses have been delivered to an estimated 18.3 million children across 36 countries since the Big Catch-Up was launched during World Immunization Week 2023, reports the WHO. The initiative is on track to meet its target of 21 million un- and under-immunized children.

The sanctity of healthcare is compromised through warfare on a daily basis, a trio of health leaders said on 3 May. The heads of the WHO, Médecins Sans Frontières and the International Committee of the Red Cross marked 10 years since the UN Security Council adopted a resolution on healthcare in armed conflicts by warning that "the situation is even worse" a decade on.

A single high dose of a psychedelic found in 'magic mushrooms' can cause anatomical changes to the brain, a new study finds. A month after 28 participants took the dose, scientists spotted changes in the structure of their brains. “We don’t yet know what these changes mean, but we do note that overall, people showed positive psychological changes in this study, including improved well-being and mental flexibility,” Professor Robin Carhart-Harris, senior author on the study, told the Guardian.

4. More on health from Forum Stories

An estimated 2.1 billion experience financial hardship when seeking healthcare. With workers' health under pressure from a growing array of global risks, the costs are borne by businesses, local communities and workers themselves. This health protection gap is leaving global supply chains vulnerable. Hervé Balzano of Mercer and Marsh says coordinated action by governments, employers and insurers is needed to treat workforce health as a broader infrastructural issue. Read more here.

Messenger RNA (mRNA) could contribute to many more medical advances, argues Nobel Laureate, Professor Tom Cech. While the single-stranded molecule is most famously responsible for the breakthrough COVID-19 vaccine in 2020 (see timeline below), it is capable of a huge variety of applications. From treating cancers to CRISPR technology, the potential of RNA-based therapeutics to transform medicine is within reach, he says.

Mental health conditions affect not just the person concerned, but families, employers and economies, too. As labour markets tighten and mental health pressures increase, early action can prevent short‑term distress from becoming long‑term disengagement, says Alison Martin of Zurich Insurance Group. In this article, she argues for employers to help connect people to support earlier, before a team member reaches the point of needing specialist care and having to leave the workforce.