Global capital markets had a banner year in 2025. Equity indexes around the world soared higher while corporate credit spreads tightened. Increasing merger and acquisition check sizes underscored robust risk taking. The International Monetary Fund revised its forecast for global gross domestic product modestly upward.

Yet beneath this optimism, the post-Cold War architecture of financial globalization, built around Pax Americana, is undergoing what I believe to be its most profound transformation in decades. The world is undoubtedly becoming more contested and more regionally divided.

Geopolitical fragmentation was once seen as a tail risk, but it is fast becoming a central factor influencing the direction of global finance. We all saw this on display last month as world leaders took the podium at our annual conference in Davos and spoke of shifts and breaks in the world order. Governments around the world are turning inward. Some are deploying tools of economic statecraft—tariffs, investment mandates, sanctions, and industrial policy—to score geopolitical objectives and strengthen their domestic resilience.

The side effects of such behavior are quickly multiplying. America’s rewriting of global trade rules through its tariff regime is the most visible, but there are also “Buy Canadian” investment mandates, Chinese firms delisting from US stock exchanges, and increasingly contentious European debates over frozen Russian reserves. Central banks are diversifying their currency reserves, and the development of alternative payment corridors that reduce dependencies on the US dollar are expanding.

World leaders like to say that these kinds of actions protect their nation’s security and bolster their supply-chain resilience. But for financial institutions and investors, the cumulative effect is a more complex operating environment marked by higher counterparty risk, regulatory divergence, and capital inefficiency. Fragmentation compels banks and asset managers to localize balance sheets and hold excess capital, constraining cross-border intermediation and dampening growth.

Research from the IMF shows that a one-standard-deviation increase in geopolitical tension reduces cross-border bank and portfolio flows by roughly 15%. Recent analysis by the World Economic Forum estimates that heightened fragmentation could reduce global GDP by up to $5.7 trillion, while also stoking inflation.

Emerging economies caught between competing superpowers left especially vulnerable. A majority of chief economists surveyed by the Forum expect foreign direct investment to slow under the uncertainty of a more contested world—just as developing-country external debt has reached $11.4 trillion. Many of their governments spend more than 10% of revenue on interest payments alone.

All governments need to know that there is a stark trade-off that comes with fragmentation. Their efforts today to protect sovereignty and resilience may weaken their growth, fiscal sustainability, and financial stability tomorrow.

Pragmatic regional alliances have been popping up over the past year as a dual offensive and defensive strategy against those downsides. The Asean-China Free Trade Area, the African Continental Free Trade Area, and the European Union and India’s recent trade agreement, for example, aim to financially integrate diverse economies. They hope that will attract capital, foster innovation, and bolster economic resilience. Rather than pursuing scale individually, these countries are seeking it collectively.

We are also seeing this in the plumbing of payment systems. India and Singapore’s UPI-PayNow linkage, China’s CIPS renminbi clearing system, and mBridge—a joint experiment involving China, the United Arab Emirates, Thailand, and Hong Kong—illustrate how financial rails are evolving toward regional cooperation.

Geopolitical frictions and America’s expanding use of sanctions to execute foreign policy are motivating some countries to diversify into nondollar currencies and alternative stores of value—notably gold and, to a lesser extent, crypto. While official dollar reserve holdings remain relatively stable, trade invoicing is gradually shifting toward other currencies, signaling incremental diversification in global payments.

Yesterday’s north star of global financial harmony has yielded to today’s realpolitik. But regional cooperation doesn’t need to splinter the world entirely. By insisting that governments hardwire interoperability into the architecture of financial systems, corporate leaders can shape regional integration into a steppingstone toward renewed global connectivity, rather than allowing it to calcify into a permanent dead end.

Those that adapt their operating models, policy frameworks, and risk assumptions to this new reality will help shape a system that is fit for a multipolar world. Those that cling to outdated assumptions risk being overtaken.