Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says the real test of today's WWDC keynote is whether Apple can deliver better AI experiences than Google using the same Gemini models.

Apple is using Google's Gemini to underpin the revamped version of Siri and new Apple Intelligence features. The key takeaway from WWDC, Kuo argues in a new post on X, will not be the short-term market reaction after the event. It will be whether Apple, using the same Gemini models, can deliver better AI applications, agentic workflows, and on-device and cloud hybrid experiences than Google.

If the answer is yes, it would help extend Apple's "bull" case. If the answer is no, the implication is that Apple's ceiling is set by a model it does not control. Kuo raised the point arguing against the market sentiment that "Even if Apple is temporarily behind on AI, it will ultimately catch up and come out ahead."

Nevertheless, Kuo believes Apple's business momentum will stay strong through year-end based on his latest supply-chain checks, which he expects observers to spin as "If Apple is doing this well without AI, just imagine once it has AI." Other reports suggest Apple's longer-term advantage could lie in on-device AI, with the company expected to show how its custom silicon lets it process more AI queries directly on the device rather than in the cloud.

Kuo expects today's announcements to have little bearing on the direction of Apple's stock price in the second half of the year. Regardless of what Apple says at WWDC, he argues, the positive second half of 2026 share-price trend is unlikely to change as long as the core narrative stays intact.

The longer-term risk is more pointed. Should Apple fail to outdo Google with Gemini, Kuo says the stock would not necessarily turn bearish, but the assumption that Apple "will ultimately come out ahead" would begin to face growing scrutiny. How much longer the bull narrative can last beyond 2026, in his view, is what makes the keynote worth watching closely.