Global contactless payment transaction values will increase from US$7.7tn in 2025 to US$18.1tn in 2030, a rise of 106%, market analysts Juniper Research predict.

NFC ticketing and the arrival of open NFC wallets on Apple devices will be the two key growth drivers, the analysts say.

“The fastest growing contactless payment mechanism driving this expansion is Near-field Communication (NFC) ticketing; projected to grow by 300% over the next five years,” they say. 

“NFC ticketing enables quick tap-in, tap-out access for transport and events; optimising queueing while maintaining security. 

“NFC ticketing is projected to grow from 11.2bn transactions in 2025 to 44.8bn by 2030; driven largely by the metro sector.

“To fully realise this growth, providers should focus on making NFC ticketing interoperable across multiple transport modes and operators, as well as collaborating with local authorities to align with smart city initiatives. These strategies will embed contactless use deeper into daily routines; boosting adoption.

“The next fastest growing contactless payment mechanism is non-OEM digital wallets — those developed by banks or fintechs, rather than device manufacturers — which are projected to grow 113% over the next five years.

“This growth is fuelled by Apple’s move to open iPhone NFC access; allowing third-party apps to securely store payment credentials and enable tap-to-pay transactions. This paves the way for direct account-to-merchant payments that bypass Apple Pay and card networks.”

“This increases competition in the mobile contactless payments market; posing a direct threat to card schemes and OEM wallets,” research author Lorien Carter says.

“To break through the entrenched dominance of OEM wallets, new contactless payments providers must differentiate through added value such as loyalty rewards, real-time spending insights, and integrated digital ticketing capabilities.”

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