Cross-border biotech deals between China and the United States are becoming more complicated and could face a modest slowdown as Washington steps up efforts to restrict investment and technology transfers, according to industry analysts.

“There will be more geopolitical scrutiny going forward. This scrutiny may lead to slightly fewer deals than without it,” said Diederik Stadig, senior healthcare economist at ING Research.

Despite the growing regulatory hurdles, Stadig said the broader trend of Western pharmaceutical companies partnering with Chinese biotech firms was unlikely to reverse.

“Given the rising importance of Chinese innovation, Western pharmaceutical companies will continue to strike deals with Chinese counterparts, and we expect this trend to accelerate in the years ahead,” he said.

ING estimates the value of out-licensing agreements between Chinese biotech companies and Western drug makers would reach about US$240 billion this year, up from US$136 billion in 2025.

“There is room for these deals to become even larger,” Stadig said. “Only the largest pharmaceutical companies have the scale and resources to navigate the political environment. These transactions will increasingly remain the domain of Big Pharma.”