China is poised to leverage the humanoid and robotics market to consolidate its dominance over global manufacturing – a move that echoes its decade-long rise to the top of the electric vehicle (EV) sector, according to a new report.

“Looking ahead, humanoids and robots will be the next key driver of China’s export machinery over the coming 5 to 10 years,” analysts from Morgan Stanley said in a note. “Indeed, we see parallels between the development of the humanoids and robots industry and that of the EV industry a decade ago.”

The analysts, led by Chetan Ahya, the investment bank’s chief Asia economist, reiterated a previous projection that China’s global export market share would climb from 15 per cent now to 16.5 per cent by 2030, further expanding its lead in global manufacturing and exports.

In their note on Monday, they said evidence of China’s early dominance was already visible in production and deployment. Chinese manufacturers accounted for roughly 90 per cent of the 13,000 to 16,000 humanoid robots shipped globally last year, while rivals in the US and Japan remained largely at the prototype stage, the analysts noted.

Morgan Stanley further forecast that China’s annual humanoid robot sales would more than double to around 28,000 units this year, exceeding the output of any other economy.

The bullish projections come amid Beijing’s intensifying focus on advanced manufacturing and “future industries” – priorities underscored in China’s latest five-year plan covering 2026 to 2030. Humanoids and robots are at the forefront of this state-led push.