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MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE - JANUARY 09: Ja Morant #12 of the Memphis Grizzlies reacts before the game against the Oklahoma City Thunder at FedExForum on January 09, 2026 in Memphis, Tennessee. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images)

Ja Morant still has an active next-team market. That does not mean the Memphis Grizzlies have the trade market they want.

Morant remains one of the most-watched names entering the NBA Draft window, and prediction markets reflect that uncertainty. A Kalshi market for Morant’s next team has listed several possible outcomes, including Minnesota, Miami and staying with Memphis or retiring. A review of the market at 2 p.m. EST, showed Milwaukee, New Orleans, Minnesota, Memphis, Sacramento, Miami, the Los Angeles Clippers and Phoenix all priced as possible destinations.

But the latest league reporting points to a tougher reality for Memphis.

HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto reported that the Minnesota Timberwolves are now out of the Morant sweepstakes, citing The Athletic’s Jon Krawczynski. Scotto also reported that the Sacramento Kings are unlikely to pursue Morant going forward, with Sacramento projected to take a point guard with the No. 7 pick in the NBA Draft.

That creates a gap between the public market and the apparent NBA market. Kalshi traders may still see multiple paths for Morant to leave Memphis, but two previously linked teams appear to be moving in another direction.

For the Grizzlies, that is an unfortunate update.

Ja Morant Odds Show Interest, but the Grizzlies Need a Real Buyer

Kalshi’s market is useful because it shows how traders are weighing uncertainty around Morant’s future. It is not the same thing as league interest, but it does capture the public perception that Memphis has a real decision to make.

The market shown in the screenshot had Milwaukee as the highest-priced destination at 24%, followed by New Orleans and Minnesota at 21%. “Stays with Memphis or Retires” was at 20%, while Sacramento was at 19%, Miami was at 15%, and the Clippers and Suns were both at 13%.

That list is revealing for a different reason: several of the teams priced as possibilities are either complicated fits or have already been cooled by reporting.

Minnesota being out matters because the Timberwolves had been one of the cleaner theoretical landing spots. Sacramento being unlikely matters because the Kings had been linked to Morant during the season, but their expected draft direction could close that door quickly.

The Kings’ reported stance is especially important. According to Scotto, Sacramento was willing to acquire Morant this past season if it was incentivized, but Memphis was not interested in attaching draft compensation to move him.

That is the central tension for the Grizzlies.

Morant is too talented to simply dump. But if rival teams view him as a player who requires incentives attached, Memphis may not be looking at a star-for-assets trade. It may be looking at a far more uncomfortable question: whether keeping Morant is better than moving him at a depressed price.

Ja Morant’s Contract Makes This More Than a Rumor

Morant’s contract is a major part of the equation.

Spotrac lists Morant on a five-year, $197.2 million contract with the Grizzlies. His salary rises to $44.9 million in 2027-28, the final season currently listed on the deal.

For a team convinced Morant is still a franchise guard, that price can be justified. He is a two-time All-Star and one of the most explosive players in the league when right.

For a team already managing expensive roster decisions, the same contract becomes harder to absorb. Acquiring Morant would likely require a front office to answer several questions at once: Is he the primary guard? Does his timeline match the roster? Is the salary worth the risk? Can the team build a functional playoff offense around him?

That is why the “incentivized” detail from Sacramento is so damaging for Memphis.

It suggests the question is not simply whether another team likes Morant. The question is whether another team likes Morant enough to take on the contract without asking Memphis to pay for the privilege.

The Grizzlies May Be Better Off Waiting

The Grizzlies do not have to force a Morant trade before the draft.

That may be their best leverage point.

Memphis has young players, draft capital and time to reshape the roster without immediately selling low on its most famous player. Scotto’s notebook also included comments from Grizzlies forward Cedric Coward, who praised Morant as a teammate and called him “one of my favorite teammates I’ve ever been around.” Coward said Morant was the first person to text him after he was drafted and added, “Whatever happens, happens. That doesn’t change how I feel about him.”

That does not mean Morant is staying long term. It does, however, undercut the idea that Memphis has no choice but to move him immediately.

The cleaner read is that the Grizzlies are caught between two imperfect options.

They can trade Morant now, but the current market may require them to accept less than his talent suggests, or include sweeteners they do not want to include. Or they can keep him, draft for value and hope his trade value improves later.

The Kalshi odds show that Morant’s future is still very much in play. The reporting shows why a trade may be harder than the odds make it look.

For Memphis, that is the problem. The Grizzlies may have plenty of speculation around Morant, but they still need one team willing to meet their price.

Right now, that team has not clearly emerged.