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The Toronto Maple Leafs 2025-26 would be squandered unless an important development happens, helping long-term success.

The Toronto Maple Leafs officially wrapped up their 2025-26 season with their end-of-season media availability. The overall tone of the players’ exit interviews was somber and gloomy. It might be too soon to truly comprehend what went wrong. The entire organization still needs time to process everything that went wrong this season.

While players such as William Nylander pointed towards injuries as the main culprit for the Leafs’ utterly disappointing season, there might still be a silver lining to the season. Otherwise, the entire campaign would have been a total waste.

The Maple Leafs need to recoup their first-round pick. If they can get it back, the balance of the season would at least have a positive outcome to it.

Now, why is this pick so important? The consensus is that the top 10 picks in the 2026 NHL Draft could be franchise players. That’s something that the Maple Leafs have not gotten in about seven or eight years. After drafting players like Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews in the mid-2010s, Toronto has not had the chance to draft an impact player like that.

As such, this draft, more than ever, would provide the Maple Leafs with that opportunity. While it would be a fantastic result to land the first-overall pick, the fact is that landing a pick in the top five would suffice.

A top-five pick would enable the Maple Leafs to take a future number-one defenseman, an impact forward, or a potential future captain (here’s looking at Gavin McKenna).

But there’s still plenty of room for the Maple Leafs to miss out on that pick.

Maple Leafs Wasted Season Hinges on 2026 NHL Draft Lottery

The Maple Leafs did their part on the ice. They successfully tanked, landing the fifth overall slot via the standings. But that’s only half of the task. The rest of the job depends on the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery. The lottery will determine the final placements for the draft.

As it stands, the Leafs have an 8.5% chance of landing the top-overall selection. That’s a heck of a lot better than what the New York Islanders had to deal with last season. The Isles landed the first pick in the 2025 NHL Draft with about 3% odds.

That said, the goal is not to necessarily land the top pick. The aim is to remain in the top five. That situation would enable the Maple Leafs to recoup this year’s first-round pick.

However, the opposite could also occur.

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What Happens if Toronto Drops in Final Draft Order?

There’s a pretty thin margin for error. While the Maple Leafs could certainly move up in the draft order, they could also drop. The rules determine that the most a team could drop is two spots from their original order.

That situation means that, in the worst of cases, the Leafs could drop to seventh overall. That’s no bueno as it would send the pick back to the Boston Bruins. Should that happen, then the 2025-26 season would be a complete waste for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

If such a thing occurred, Toronto would have little hope of landing a high-end talent. If anything, missing out on this year’s first-rounder could plunge the Maple Leafs into a painful, long-term rebuild. Unfortunately for Leafs Nation, that potential outcome is in the hands of the hockey gods.