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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 25: Gerrit Cole #45 of the New York Yankees reacts after Enrique Hernandez #8 of the Los Angeles Dodgers hit a triple in the fifth inning during Game One of the 2024 World Series at Dodger Stadium on October 25, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Perhaps the biggest series in Major League Baseball is set to take place at Yankee Stadium this weekend when the surging Tampa Bay Rays are set to come into the Bronx with a 4.5-game lead in the American League East.
As good as the Yankees have played this season (30-21), the Rays have the best record in MLB (33-15), and come into this series as winners of eight of their last 10 games.
As for the Yankees, Gerrit Cole is making his highly anticipated season debut after missing all of last season with Tommy John Surgery. It’s unclear what to expect out of Cole in his first game back, but it’s certainly a welcome sign for New York. The Yankees are 4-6 in their last 10 games, and hold a 16-8 record in 24 home games.
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GettyNEW YORK, NEW YORK – JULY 17: Gerrit Cole #45 of the New York Yankees reacts after the last out in the seventh inning against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium on July 17, 2022 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
This is the heavyweight matchup in the American League East that everybody wants to see. The New York Yankees just split a four-game set with the Toronto Blue Jays this week, while the Rays swept the Baltimore Orioles. Tampa Bay has won its last four games.
First pitch in game one of the Rays-Yankees series is set for 7:05 p.m. EST at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. Nick Martinez (4-1, 1.51) gets the start for the Rays.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, and are subject to change:
Moneyline: New York Yankees: -156 ($156 bet wins $100), Rays +129 ($100 bet wins $129)
Run Line (spread): Yankees -1.5 (+139), Rays +1.5 (-169)
Game total (runs scored): O8 (-101), U8 (119)
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GettyNEW YORK, NEW YORK – MAY 20: Spencer Jones #78 reacts with Cody Bellinger #35 of the New York Yankees after a play during the fifth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium on May 20, 2026 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
To kick things off, I’ll give a best bet for tonight’s game, which is really just going to be a player prop, and I’m going with Aaron Judge O 1.5 total bases (-130). It’s about as good a value you will get for Judge to get an XBH, and with his recent slump (and the Yankees being shut out yesterday), expect some offense out of the captain tonight.
As for a prediction in the game markets betting sector (ML, Spread, Game Total), the Tampa Bay Rays on the moneyline feels like a solid play at +129. I mean, that’s pretty great value for the best team in MLB. And nobody has any idea how Gerrit Cole will fare in his first start in nearly two years. How long of a leash will he have? How much will the bullpen be used? When you have to ask questions like that when contemplating a moneyline winner, the underdog is usually the best play.
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TJ French covers the MLB for Heavy. TJ is a graduate of the University of Georgia. He has 2+ years of writing experience. Follow TJ French on X: @tj_french5 More about TJ French
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