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NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 16: Manny Machado #13 of the San Diego Padres argues with home plate umpire Adam Beck after being ejected by Beck during the sixth inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field on June 16, 2024 in New York City. The Mets won 11-6. (Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images)

The San Diego Padres will owe star third baseman Manny Machado $270 million from ages 34-40. 

Oftentimes in long-term deals, money is backloaded so teams can build around elite players during their primes. The Los Angeles Dodgers took that strategy to the extreme when they normalized the ‘deferred deal.’ That being said, the Padres are off to a great start in 2026. Through the team’s first 40 games, they own a record of 24-16, and just split a series with the red-hot Cardinals. 

Even with so much success in the early going, it’s worthwhile to question if Machado’s latter years will hamstring San Diego’s ability to compete. 

Manny Machado’s Start to 2026 has Been Concerning 

If Machado were blasting home runs into seas of San Diegans, his deal wouldn’t look so abysmal. Unfortunately, the veteran hasn’t delivered on his deal thus far.  

In his first 161 plate appearances, Machado owns a .191 batting average and a .647 OPS. Is this a slow start? Or a sign of the times with an aging player? 

Underlying Numbers Tell a Different Story About Machado

Machado’s underlying metrics suggest that he’s been rather unlucky to kick things off. Although he has struggled in raw power departments, posting an xSLG in the 39th percentile of baseball, Machado’s expected averages on fastballs and breaking balls are better than his current performance. 

Additionally, the right-hander still swings a quick bat. Averaging out at 74mph, San Diego’s third baseman still has the bat speed to produce high-quality contact. If his numbers suggest anything, it’s that he’s just a tick off. 

Even while he middles at the plate, the likely future Hall-of-Fame third baseman continues his defensive dominance at the hot corner. Fellow third baseman Nolan Arenado, who has often been compared to Machado through their respective careers, had a similar career arc before he was traded. Now a Diamondback, Arenado has started to produce on offense again and is enjoying a nice bounce-back campaign. 

If Arenado taught fans anything, it’s this: having a high floor allows a player to elongate their career. Even when he struggled at the dish, Arenado was a box office third baseman. If worst comes to worst, the Padres have Machado’s glove. 

The Padres Organization Lacks Depth for Aging Veterans 

San Diego has seemingly been in ‘win-now’ mode for the past seven seasons. The team currently employs aging veterans, including Xander Boegarts, the aforementioned Machado, Joe Musgrove, Jake Cronenworth, and Miguel Andujar. With so many players destined for dinner dates with Father Time, the Padres must have youth on the way, right? 

Wrong. The Friars general manager, AJ Preller, has made it a trend to trade away prospect capital like it’s a commodity. Right now, the Padres highest-ranked Machado replacement is Kale Fountain, who is currently in single-A and projected to debut in 2029. 

Ethan Salas (SD #2, C) highlights San Diego’s offensive pieces. As a 19-year-old catcher already in Double-A, he intrigues scouts across baseball. The Padres pitching pipeline looks toward Kruz Schoolcraft (SD #1, LHP) and Kash Mayfield (SD #4, LHP) for their future on the mound. Both are towering left-handed starters with plus heaters. 

The Padres have historically operated at face value. Depth isn’t in the Preller vocabulary. The only time this kind of strategy blanks is when star players sputter on large deals. If Machado bounces back, it vindicates the Preller chronicles of mega-deal trades. If he sputters in the backend, San Diego’s lack of organizational depth could become a long-term issue.