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Kevin Stefanski speaks to the media after being introduced as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on January 27, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

The Atlanta Falcons are starting all over in 2026, with a mostly new coaching staff and front office led by head coach Kevin Stefanski and general manager Ian Cunningham. Now the question is: will it actually make a difference?

The Falcons haven’t had a winning season since 2017, even though they’ve finished second in the NFC South three times since then. Mediocrity has been the reality for Atlanta — not bad enough to fully rebuild, but not good enough to win — with a playoff drought now at eight seasons.

Stefanski, in particular, will be the fourth head coach in seven years for the Falcons, as the team has gone 41-60 during that stretch. With the NFL Draft now in the rearview and the upcoming schedule release set for May 14, expectations for the new coach and the season ahead are unfortunately looking oddly familiar.

Falcons Facing Middle-Of-The-Pack Schedule

The Falcons may not know the dates and times of their schedule yet, but they do know who they’ll be facing.

Home games:

• Carolina Panthers (8-9)
• New Orleans Saints (6-11)
• Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
• Chicago Bears (11-6)
• Detroit Lions (9-8)
• Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
• Cincinnati Bengals (6-11)
• San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
• Kansas City Chiefs (6-11)

  *One of these games will be played internationally.

Away games:

• at Carolina Panthers (8-9)
• at New Orleans Saints (6-11)
• at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
• at Green Bay Packers (9-7-1)
• at Minnesota Vikings (9-8)
• at Cleveland Browns (5-12)
• at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
• at Washington Commanders (5-12)

According to Sharp Football Analysis, that ranks the Falcons 20th in strength of schedule. Nevertheless, their 2026 projected win total sits at 7.5, which is in line with the team’s win total over the last five years.

Regardless of the new coaching staff and front office moves, if that projection holds, it won’t sit well with Falcons fans who have grown tired of mediocrity. That type of outcome would likely keep Atlanta out of the playoffs for a ninth straight season.

Could Kevin Stefanki Lead Falcons To Playoffs In Year 1?

For Stefanski and the Falcons, the biggest issue will be figuring out who the right person is behind center. Former Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will now battle Michael Penix Jr. for the starting job this fall.

Still, Bleacher Report’s Kristopher Knox believes a realistic expectation for Stefanski in his first season could be a 9-8 finish, potentially earning a playoff berth.

“There’s a very real chance that Stefanski will help Atlanta get into the playoffs this year. After all, the Falcons matched the NFC South’s best record at 8-9 last season—though they lost the division to the Carolina Panthers due to divisional record and tiebreakers,” Knox wrote.

Atlanta has had opportunities to take the division over the last two years but failed to win the games that mattered most. With how questionable the NFC South has been, there’s no reason the Falcons can’t be in the mix again in 2026.

They just have to do what they haven’t done in recent years — finish. Whether this new regime can change that remains to be seen.

The Browns never won the AFC North and only made the playoffs twice under Stefanski in six seasons. One of those was his first in Cleveland back in 2020.