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James Harden #1 of the Cleveland Cavaliers is a top player in NBA free agency

It’s not a big surprise that Cavaliers star James Harden will almost certainly be staying put in Cleveland once the team’s season is over and 2026 NBA free agency gets rolling. The presumption, since he was traded from the Clippers more than three months ago, was that Harden would exercise his player option and sign a new deal that runs with a smaller AAV than the $42 million he’d be due next year. Harden’s hot-and-cold performances during the playoffs surely gave the Cavs pause on that, but ultimately, the expectation is he will be back.

The same can be said for Jalen Duren of the Pistons, a restricted free agent. Duren was arguably the biggest disappointment of any player in the playoffs, finishing with 10.2 points after averaging 19.5 points in the regular season. There’s much to decipher with what went wrong, but Duren is just 22 years old and while he might not be a candidate for a five-year, $240 million offer (it’s fair to question whether Detroit was ever going to go there), he is going to get a significant contract from Detroit.

Duren is a restricted free agent–no one is going to outbid the Pistons for him. It will be worth watching whether teams even try. As for the wider free-agent market, let’s look at where things stand …

NBA Free Agency: James Harden Wants to Stay in Cleveland

Austin Reaves, Lakers. He is going to opt out of the final season of his contract, at $14 million and finally get a deal that pays him his worth. The Lakers are saying they’re not letting him go, and could step in with a $241 million max deal. But Reaves has injury concerns and is a defensive liability in the playoffs. Will the Lakers pay up—and could anyone realistically challenge them?

James Harden, Cavaliers. Chatter suggests he could opt out of $42 million and take a smaller, three-year deal to stay in Cleveland.

Trae Young, Wizards. He’s got a player option at $49 million, which might prove too hefty to decline. But, like Harden, Young could agree to a longer-term deal at a significantly lower number.

Ayo Dosunmu, Timberwolves. He’s due a big raise after a strong postseason in Minnesota. The Wolves will try to keep him and have a chance to extend him but might be better letting him hit free agency, then bringing him back.

Bennedict Mathurin, Clippers. Shooting struggles after his trade to the Clippers could complicate restricted free agency, which is always complicated enough as is. But L.A. brought in Mathurin as a chip from the Ivica Zubac trade and have ample desire to keep him in place.

Coby White, Hornets. Thrived down the stretch off the bench for the Hornets, and it’d be a surprise if Charlotte let him walk.

CJ McCollum, Hawks. He will take a cut from his $30 million last year, but the Hawks have no long-term point guard answer. Running it back with McCollum on a short-term deal makes sense.

Collin Gillespie, Suns. Breakout year with 12.7 points and 40% 3-point shooting should mean a sizable raise. The Suns want to keep building and are likely to re-sign him.

Luke Kennard, Lakers. Moved back into the spotlight with the Lakers, and an expanded role. But he fizzled out after a strong opening to the playoffs, and should be around a mid-level guy ($15 million per year) on a short-term deal.

Marcus Smart, Lakers. Proved his value as a secondary point guard and a leader down the stretch with the Lakers, who want him back. He has a player option around $6 million, and it’s not certain he will opt out.

Free-Agent Forwards:  LeBron James Watch Is On

LeBron James, Lakers. What’s next for LeBron James? That’s not a question we have been able to ask in quite some time in the NBA, not since he went to the Lakers in 2018. It will be tricky, because James does not want to play on a bargain contract but might not be able to drum up a sign-and-trade offer that could allow him to leave L.A. and get paid $40 million-plus. As of now, a Lakers return is in the lead and if he leads, the Cavaliers and Warriors are the front-runners.

Peyton Watson, Nuggets. His breakout year was well-timed, as he heads into restricted free agency. But he missed the second half of the season with a hamstring issue, and that will dent his value. The Nuggets are up against a wall salary-wise, and they can only re-sign him if they can dump salary elsewhere. But … can he attract a big offer from an outside team? Watch out for Chicago here.

Lu Dort, Thunder. The OKC cash crunch is set to begin this summer, and the team could pass on picking up Dort’s $19 million option.

Norman Powell, Heat. Coming off an All-Star season, Powell is looking for a raise from the $20 million per year he made last season. Miami wants him back, but it could depend on whether the team finally makes a blockbuster trade.

Tari Eason, Rockets. The addition of Kevin Durant did not do much for Eason’s development, and it could knock him back in what he might have earned from the Rockets in his upcoming restricted free agency.

Andrew Wiggins, Heat. He still has a role in the NBA as a solid two-way player, and he’s likely to look to catch on with a contender for next season. Wiggins does have a player option in place, though, and could choose to exercise it.

Jonathan Kuminga, Hawks. Kuminga has a $24 million team option, and there is chatter that there is already a handshake agreement for a long-term deal. But it would make sense for Atlanta to keep him on that one-year deal and figure out how he fits in.

Tobias Harris, Pistons. Fan bases always complain about Harris, until the chips are down and you realize how much value he has. He could help a contender on a value contract.

Rui Hachimura, Lakers. That other Lakers free agent has been easy to overlook. His value is tough to pin down, because he should get in the $20 million per year range but there are not many teams that will have the flexibility to give him that.

John Collins, Clippers. He could opt in on $26 million, but he could look for a smaller per-year deal with a longer term.

NBA Free Agency: Jalen Duren, Walker Kessler Lead the Way

Jalen Duren, Pistons. As we mentioned, Duren’s restricted free agency will be a summer drama–it’s just a matter of the level of hardball the Pistons want to play.

Walker Kessler, Jazz. Kessler will be one of the most  closely watched free-agents this summer, with the Bulls and Lakers known to have strong interest. The Jazz want to keep him, but will they pay top dollar to do so?

Isaiah Hartenstein, Thunder. Again, OKC has a cash crunch up ahead, and the team option on Hartenstein’s $28 million would be an easy way to duck some tax trouble. It would sting to lose him, but the Thunder always knew that was a possibility here. Question is, who will pay him?

Deandre Ayton, Lakers. Ayton has an $8 million player option, and despite his improvements with the Lakers, that will not be an easy decision. He could choose to come back on that number next year.

Mitchell Robinson, Knicks. The Knicks’ future depends on how the playoffs unfold, and that includes Robinson. Will another team be willing to gamble on Robinson’s delicate ankles? Will the Knicks?

Kristaps Porzingis, Warriors. The Warriors did not trade for Porzingis just to let him walk, but his lack of availability will limit what they’re willing to pay him to keep him around.

Mark Williams, Suns. He’s an effective rim-running big man but health concerns will limit him to short free-agent offers.

Nikola Vucevic, Celtics. His Boston tenure was a disaster after he was traded from the Bulls. He broke a finger in March, came back, but was benched in the playoffs.

Jaxson Hayes, Lakers. Hayes wants to return to the Lakers, but if he gets a significant offer—with more playing time—he would have to take it.

Nick Richards, Bulls. There are not a ton of center options for the Bulls in, so keeping Richards with an eye on perhaps trading him down the line could be the move here.