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Team Canada's Gavin McKenna.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a big offseason ahead of them as the team looks to reload following a disappointing 25-26 campaign that saw them miss out on a playoff berth for the first time in a decade.

The franchise has cleaned house with a complete overhaul of the organization taking place this offseason. The new look front office led by John Chayka will be bringing in a fresh coaching staff into the fray as well, following the removal of Craig Berube.

After the coaching decision, the next important choice of the summer for this Toronto squad lies with their first overall selection in the 2026 NHL entry draft. Most pundits have presumed that projected top prospect Gavin McKenna will be the pick for the Maple Leafs. However, there is a possibility the Maple Leafs could go in a different direction here.

Gavin McKenna Not a Guarantee to Go First Overall

Via insider Frank Seravalli, he believes it is “not a foregone conclusion” that McKenna will be the pick for Toronto in June.

This would go against the grain of what the vast majority of analysts who cover the sport think will happen in this draft. McKenna is considered by many to be the premier player in this class. He could be an elite winger for Toronto to pair with their franchise center Auston Matthews on offense.

If the Maple Leafs were to consider another player, there are a couple that come to mind as potential targets. Ivar Stenberg is another top wing prospect who could be in play here. He has challenged McKenna for first overall status all season with his strong performance overseas this year. He is currently playing for Team Sweden in the IIHF World Championship.

Toronto could also go the defensive route with this selection. The Maple Leafs have clear holes in their lineup when it comes to the defense. They have an aging d-core with little prospects on the way for future success in this position. There are a plethora of top defenseman available in this draft, including: Chase Reid, Carson Carels, Keaton Verhoeff and Alberts Smits.

Toronto Should Not Overthink This Draft Decision

Players with the ceiling of McKenna are rare to find in the draft. For a Toronto team that has aspirations of enacting a fast retooling process and returning to playoff contention soon, this is not a pick they can afford to get wrong.

There are a couple philosophies in play that general managers utilize on draft day. There is drafting off of best player available and drafting based on team positional need. While it may be true that picking a defenseman would make more sense for Toronto in terms of plugging a weakness in their lineup; talents like McKenna don’t come around often.

The Maple Leafs also have to take into account their existing core with this decision. The loss of Mitch Marner hurt the identity of this team, especially Matthew’s production. McKenna would be able to join the 26-27 team and could provide that spark they have been missing in Marner’s absence.

Chayka knows how crucial this draft is for his team’s future success. He has to get this right; Matthews tenure with the club could be in jeopardy if this opportunity is squandered.