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Gavin McKenna

Penn State University’s Gavin McKenna is the overwhelming favorite to be taken first overall by the Toronto Maple Leafs in the 2026 NHL Draft.

The Maple Leafs stunned the hockey world on Tuesday night when they won the NHL Draft Lottery with just an 8.5% chance to win, giving the team the rights to pick first overall in the upcoming draft. Now, with less than two months to go until the June 26 draft in Buffalo, new Maple Leafs general manager John Chayka and senior advisor Mats Sundin will have to get to work on deciding who to pick first overall. But if you ask the prediction markets, it’s a no-brainer.

Gavin McKenna is a Huge Favorite to be Picked No. 1 Overall

According to Kalshi, McKenna has an 88% chance of being taken first overall by the Maple Leafs. While that’s not a lock, it does show you that the betting public overwhelmingly thinks that the 18-year-old Canadian from Whitehorse, Yukon, will go No. 1 overall by the Maple Leafs.

McKenna played junior hockey for the Medicine Hat Tigers, and he was an absolute standout for them. In 2024-25, McKenna played 56 games in the WHL and scored 41 goals and 129 points. He then went to college in the United States, and he had a strong rookie season in the NCAA, playing 35 games for Penn State University and scoring 15 goals and 51 points.

It simply makes sense, as McKenna has been the consensus top prospect in this year’s NHL draft for some time now. The Maple Leafs weren’t even expected to be in this spot 24 hours ago, and now they had this gift fall in their laps from the hockey gods. They shouldn’t overthink this. Just take McKenna and go from there.

Other Potential First Overall Picks

Of course, there are other prospects in the draft that are going to be great NHL players. Ivar Stenberg is another top-rated forward prospect, and given that he is Swedish, Sundin has presumably seen a lot of him over the years. There are also other high-end youngsters like Chase Reid, Caleb Malhotra, and Keaton Verhoeff who will surely turn into capable NHL players.

All of these young hockey players are going to be great one day. But the Maple Leafs need to go with the best player available, and that’s McKenna. They simply need to decide to take him and live with the consequences. The odds are that he is going to turn into an amazing NHL player who scores tons of goals for many years to come. There’s always the potential for any prospect to bust out, but if there is any prospect who is as close to a sure thing as possible, it is McKenna.

There have been some suggestions that the Maple Leafs could trade down in the draft and pick up extra assets, while still taking one of these other top prospects. While it’s theoretically possible, these sorts of trade-down transactions don’t happen as often in the NHL as they do in the NFL. The overwhelming conclusion to all of this is the Maple Leafs keeping their pick and taking McKenna with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, hoping that he becomes the savior of the franchise and help lead them to their first Stanley Cup since 1967.