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NDSU has a lineage of NFL quarterbacks and FCS championships, but the FBS looks like a tall order in 2026.

Speculation has abounded on how North Dakota State will do in Year One of FBS play after dominating the FCS for 15 years.

A consensus seems to be brewing among analysts, and it could temper the Bison fan base’s expectations but give Bison players bulletin board material as a motivator. Analysts are generally putting NDSU in the middle of the Mountain West Conference pack.

Phil Steele most notably the Bison for fifth in the Mountain West for his yearly College Football Preview. Athlon Sports’ Steven Lassan predicted the Bison for fourth in the conference, and Nevada Sportsnet’s Chris Murray picked the Bison for fourth.

UNLV, New Mexico and Hawaii typically lead the pack, and Steele has Air Force also finishing ahead of the Bison. NDSU notably faces all four teams on the road this year.

While NDSU has a 9-5 road record against FBS teams since 2004, the Bison only played one FBS opponent per season. Those games also became less frequent as FBS teams shied away from the Bison, especially after upsets of Minnesota, Kansas State and Iowa between 2011 and 2016.

NDSU graduated loads of talent from last year’s team, which went 12-1. That by itself lends for a challenge any given season, and while the Bison have reloaded easily in the FCS, moving up another level could make for a different story in 2026.

NDSU Being Middle of the Pack Not Set in Stone

While Steele picked the Bison to takie fourth, he doesn’t ignore that the Bison could do more.

“There is easily a scenario where the Bison win the league in their first year so that makes it very tough to put them here,” he wrote.

Murray also acknowledges the Bison’s past success and that former FCS teams have enjoyed immediate FBS success before. Those are notably teams that the Bison beat multiple times as an FCS titan.

“The Bison jump from the FCS to the FBS, but we’ve seen schools do that in recent years and not miss a beat [Jacksonville State, James Madison and Delaware, for example], and this move should energize the team and fan base,” Murray wrote.

Jacksonville State notably visits the Bison in the program’s first FBS game on Aug. 29 at the Fargodome. The Bison beat the Gamecocks in the 2015 season FCS championship game, the last time the two  played.

In addition, NDSU looks to replicate what JMU did last year in making the College Football Playoff, once eligibility is granted this year or down the road. The Bison beat JMU in two FCS championship games.

NDSU ‘Equipped’ Amid Challenges Ahead

Lassan acknowledged the Bison “are equipped to contend for the Mountain West title,” but detailed why he predicted the Bison to finish fourth. It comes down to the turnover in players and the tough road schedule.

“New quarterback Nathan Hayes displayed flashes of potential in limited snaps last season, while the ground game is in good hands with DJ Scott [502 yards in ‘25] primed for a larger role,” Lassan wrote. “A revamped receiving corps is [Tim] Polasek’s biggest concern on offense.”

“The Bison have to plug a few gaps at every level on defense, but this unit has enough returning talent to rank near the top of the Mountain West, especially with linebacker Donovan Woolen and tackle Keenan Wilson leading the way,” Lassan added.