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Connor McDavid of the Oilers

Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid is the betting favorite to win his fourth Hart Trophy, according to Kalshi prediction markets.

On Friday, the finalists for the 2025-26 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy were revealed, an award annually given to the player who is most valuable to his team. Aside from McDavid, Nikita Kucherov of the Tampa Bay Lightning and Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche were the other two players named finalists for the trophy, which will be handed out in June.

Connor McDavid Favored to Win the Hart Trophy

Kalshi’s latest probabilities suggest McDavid has a 53% chance of winning the Hart Trophy, followed by Kucherov at 37% and MacKinnon at 12%. This means that McDavid is a slight favorite to capture the NHL’s MVP award for the fourth time in his career, though he is far from a lock, as the probabilities are still rather close, with Kucherov not being far behind McDavid.

The Oilers’ captain previously won the Hart Trophy in 2016-17, 2020-21, and 2022-23. This is his seventh time being a finalist for the trophy, and there is a very good chance he will capture the award for the fourth time in his NHL career. He led the league with 138 points this year and helped the Oilers back to the playoffs, though the team ultimately bowed out in the first round after the Anaheim Ducks upset them. Still, the Hart Trophy is a regular-season award, so despite the Oilers having no success in this year’s playoffs, it won’t affect McDavid’s Hart Trophy chances.

If you took a poll of 100 NHL fans and asked them to name the best hockey player in the world, you’d probably get at least three-quarters of respondents, if not more, saying it’s McDavid. But despite him being universally regarded as the best hockey player on the planet, he only has three Hart Trophies to his name, despite leading the league in scoring six times. Voter fatigue plays a big part in that, as voters sometimes try to give another player the award. It’s similar to LeBron James in the NBA, who won four MVP awards but likely could have won closer to double that number if voter fatigue were not a real issue.

Kucherov, MacKinnon Also Finalists for the Hart Trophy

This year, Kucherov and MacKinnon are also finalists to win the Hart Trophy.

Kucherov is a former Hart Trophy winner, having won the award in 2018-19. He is considered to be the NHL’s premier winger, and he has been a finalist for the Hart Trophy four times in his career. He is also a two-time Stanley Cup winner with the Tampa Bay Lightning, and he helped lead the team back to the playoffs this year, though, like Edmonton, they also lost in the first round. Kucherov was second in points this year at 130, just behind McDavid.

Finally, we have MacKinnon looking to win his second Hart Trophy after previously winning it in 2023-24. He is a five-time Hart Trophy finalist, and he is the best player on the Colorado Avalanche, who are the top team in the NHL and the favorite to win the Stanley Cup this season. MacKinnon finished third in points this year with 127, behind McDavid and Kucherov.