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With the Phillies storming back into postseason contention, Aaron Nola's recent struggles have come to the forefront.

The Philadelphia Phillies have engineered one of the more impressive turnarounds in modern history. Under interim manager Don Mattingly, the Phillies have rebounded from a 9-19 start and currently sit at 25-25.

However, there are still issues that threaten to undercut this turnaround. One of them has been Aaron Nola’s performance. The right-hander has struggled in 2026. Through his first 10 starts, Nola has a 6.04 ERA with a 4.47 FIP over 51 innings.

In a critical game against the Cincinnati Reds, his struggles continued. The right-hander allowed four runs in five innings, digging the team into a hole they couldn’t quite climb out of in a 9-4 loss. The Phillies lost the series to the Reds at home, the first under Mattingly, which could have major ramifications in the postseason race.

Aaron Nola’s Miserable 2026 Season

That’s not the production the Phillies envisioned when they re-signed him to a seven-year, $172 million contract after the 2023 season. The club expected Nola to continue his 2017-2024 production, in which he ranked fourth among qualified starters in fWAR (33.1) behind Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole, and his teammate Zack Wheeler.

However, he has been anything but a frontline starter in 2026. The right-hander has just three quality starts while recording 15 or fewer outs in the other seven. Mattingly spoke about Nola’s issues following his start against the Reds.

NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Cole Weintraub published an analysis on Nola’s struggles back on May 4. Weintraub notes that the right-hander has struggled adjusting to the tighter strike zone, with MLB instituting the ABS Challenge System.

“The strike zone’s a lot smaller,” Nola told Weintraub. “I don’t really have as much room for play as we used to. I don’t get as many calls that I used to, so that changes the whole game. You’ve got to be a little bit more precise nowadays with the ABS.”

Weintraub notes the right-hander’s struggles jumping ahead of left-handed hitters. Nola posted a 50.7% first-pitch strike rate against opposite-handed hitters entering his May 4 start, but that number has since dropped to 45.2%. That has been a problem, as lefties have crushed him to a .303/.389/.495 slash in 2026.

Nola’s issues aren’t limited to left-handed hitters. While he’s been more successful at retiring right-handed hitters, he’s yielded more slug. Of the 98 righties he’s faced this year, he’s surrendered 11 extra base hits (five doubles, two triples, four home runs) and a .516 slugging percentage.

“Obviously, the large sample is a little bit of a trend that you don’t like,” said Mattingly. “I know [pitching coach Caleb Cotham] and the guys are always working on what we can do differently, what we can do better.”

Aaron Nola’s Fastball Performance Worst in MLB

The main issue has been Nola’s fastballs. The right-hander features all three fastball classifications: four-seamer, sinker, and cutter. His four-seamer and sinker average 91.2 MPH, which requires elite command to miss barrels. The right-hander cannot afford to leave pitches in the heart of the zone and has to live on all four edges to have success.

That has not been the case for Nola, who’s yielding a .396 average, a .721 slugging percentage, and a 13.6% barrel rate on his fastball-type pitches. It adds up to a -16 run value on the season, which is the worst among all MLB starting pitchers.

The expected stats, which account for batted ball data, offer little recompense as Nola is yielding a .332 xBA, .628 xSLG, and .433 xwOBA. To add context, only Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros has a higher xwOBA among all MLB hitters. With the three pitches combining for 55% of his total pitches, it’s clear that he’ll need to change his approach.

Nola’s approach has always been living on the edges of the zone with his various fastballs, then using his knuckle curve and changeup to put away hitters in two-strike counts. However, the problem has been winning the count battle to two strikes.

Nola is under contract through the 2030 season and will earn over $122 million. For both the right-hander and the Phillies, there needs to be a rebound performance. Or they will end up getting no championships out of the contention cycle that Nola helped open in 2022.