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LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers

Around the NBA, one of the popular parlor games among league observers has been the “Where’s  LeBron James going?” exercise, with the Lakers, of course, still being the No. 1 option for him. But the next iteration of that game, and a tougher one to play is this: How much will LeBron James play for in 2026-27?

That’s a trickier one to guess. There are hopeful fans in places like Cleveland, New York and Golden State–and even Lakers backers–who suppose that James will be back next season on something like a veteran’s minimum deal, or perhaps something in the range of a taxpayer’s mid-level deal. But that’s never been realistic. If James plays again next season, he will want to be paid like a player who just averaged 20.9 points, 7.2 assists and 6.1 rebounds. Those aren’t vet minimum numbers.

But James is heading into free agency, and there aren’t acres of cap space available out there, so while the idea of getting him on your roster might be appealing, the reality of actually doing so is not easy.

Lakers Could ‘Compromise’ at $30 Million

Credit ESPN’s Bobby Marks, a former front-office exec with the Nets, for tackling the question. As Marks sees it, the Lakers can give James a credible free-agent offer and still maintain the flexibility to bring back their own players and/or add new ones.

In looking at what that credible offer would be, Marks wrote, “The deal I’d offer: One year, $30 million. The contract includes a full no-trade clause.”

Barring a trade, the only realistic suitors for James could offer him $3.9 million in free agency. That’s why, increasingly, it looks like James’s choices will be retirement, a return to the Lakers or, in a slim chance, helping to facilitate a sign-and-trade.

Lakers Could Keep LeBron James, Other FAs

The good thing about getting James back on a deal in the $30 million range, Marks added, is that the Lakers will then be able to resign other role players. He notes that the Lakers could not make re-signing Austin Reaves and giving James a $50 million contract work. But if James meets them in the middle, there’s a chance.

Writes Marks: “Would James compromise to return to L.A.? A $30 million salary would allow the Lakers to re-sign Luke Kennard, Rui Hachimura and use the full $15 million non-tax midlevel exception. The Lakers could also act as a cap space team but without Hachimura and Kennard. They would then have $20 million in room and also the $9.4 million room exception.”

LeBron James Might not Decide Future ‘Until August’

Of course, the second question–how much for LeBron James?–won’t matter much if the first question of whether James wants to play again next season is, no. It won’t matter, too, if James does want to play but not for the Lakers, which is a possibility.

But the Lakers do need an answer on that question, and on Thursday, in an episode of the “Mind the Game” podcast, James had a frustrating assertion that the Lakers can’t really afford to abide–he said he might not know what he will do until August. The Lakers would need to know by July 1, though, if not then earlier, preferably by the NBA draft.

As James said: “At some point, up in June, late June, as July rolls around and free agency starts to get going, July rolls in and maybe into August, I’ll start to kind of get a feel for you know, what my future might look like. If it’s continuing to play the game that I love, which I know I can still give so much to the game and play at a high level, or if it’s not.

“But I have not got to that point yet. When I get there, it’ll be fun to see what the future can hold, whether it is, like I said, in another NBA arena for another year or not.”