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Dallas Stars RFA Jason Robertson could end up setting the market for other RFAs this offseason, given his massive season.

The Dallas Stars‘ participation in the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs has come to an end. Their defeat marks the beginning of their offseason. With it comes a major issue involving Jason Robertson.

Robertson, who is on track to become a restricted free agent (RFA), will be among other major RFAs who could command major contracts.

In particular, Robertson, who had a monster season, has put Dallas in a tough spot. This season, the 26-year-old scored 45 goals and 96 points in all 82 games. He was the only consistent scoring presence all year for the Stars. He even added five goals and eight points in Dallas’ six playoff games this postseason.

Everything is in line for Jason Robertson to sign a huge contract with the Stars. The only issue will be finalizing the dollar figures. As insider Elliotte Friedman noted in Friday’s edition of the 32 Thoughts Podcast, Robertson could land a deal in the $12 million AAV range. As such, the Stars would really have “no other choice” but to sign Robertson.

After all, what other options does Dallas have? That’s the conundrum they face. Unless the organization was serious about trading him, Jason Robertson’s next contract would likely set the baseline for other big-ticket RFAs, namely, Connor Bedard and Leo Carlsson.

Assuming that Robertson comes in at $12 million AAV, regardless of the deal’s length, it wouldn’t be ludicrous to imagine that the conversations involving Bedard and Carlsson would start at that range.

Jason Robertson May Wait for Others to Sign First

The situation could get even more complicated for the Stars if Robertson decides to wait. The rationale for that decision would lie in the former second-round pick’s inclination to wait for Bedard and/or Carlsson to re-sign.

Let’s think about that for a second. If Jason Robertson believes he can extract more value in his next deal, waiting for Bedard or even Carlsson to re-sign first would give him plenty of ammo. If Bedard, for instance, signs for $14 million AAV, Robertson could come back and push for a similar deal.

Similarly, if Carlsson inks for $12 million AAV, Robertson could use that as a baseline and not back down from it. The Stars, being stuck in the situation they are in, would have little choice but to call the bluff.

Keeping Robertson Would Mean Cap Gymnastics for Dallas

Keeping Jason Robertson would end up representing major cap gymnastics for the Dallas Stars. Robertson is ending a four-year deal carrying a $7.75 million cap hit. Assuming the Stars re-up Robertson for, say, $12 million, that’s about an increase of $5 million next season. According to PuckPedia, Dallas will have about $11 million in cap space for next season. That cap space could get tied up among a number of UFAs and RFAs.

That tight cap situation would mean figuring out cheap contracts for veteran depth players. If the Stars can’t re-sign any of their impending UFAs, their focus could turn to scouring the free-agent market for serviceable veteran players on cheap contracts.

It won’t be an easy task, but it’s something the organization will need to figure out moving forward. Unless the Stars are really willing to move Jason Robertson, the likeliest outcome will be a tight cap situation and a potential regression in Dallas next season.