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USGS Publications Warehouse

Neutron scattering reveals fractionation of natural gas mixtures in unconventional petroleum reservoir pores: Perspectives on energy resource recovery and storage Summaries of goals, actions, and information needs by management entity Spawning habitat suitability models for Lake Erie cisco (Coregonus artedi) during the historical period of pre- and post-population declines 1877–1957 Inland recreational fisheries harvest far exceeds reported inland harvest in the United States Abundance and movement patterns of fish accessing a reconnected Lake Erie coastal wetland: Insights from high-resolution sonar data Ecology of Lake Erie – Wetlands and lake-wide planktonic communities: A synthesis The WOAH global wildlife health collaborating centre network (WOAH-WildNet): A coordinated and transformative approach to global wildlife health challenges Tsunami hazards posed by sublacustrine landslides in Lake Quinault, Washington State Detecting bumble bees in the wild using environmental DNA: Development and validation of a qPCR assay for the endangered Franklin’s bumble bee (Bombus franklini) Critical minerals in zinc ore—An update on Earth Mapping Resources Initiative Research in the Boulder Batholith region, Montana Computation of regional groundwater budgets for the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system Historical ice jams and associated environmental conditions on Osoyoos Lake A roadmap for implementing the Emergency Recovery Plan for freshwater biodiversity Arsenic and isotope concentrations in the lower Platte River valley of eastern Nebraska, early 1970s to 2023 Geochemical disequilibrium at the brittle-ductile transition Seabed maps showing topography, ruggedness, backscatter intensity, sediment mobility, and the distribution of geologic substrates in quadrangle 3 of the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary region offshore of Boston, Massachusetts Co-occurrence of pesticides and pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) across Zostera marina (common eelgrass) communities Range-wide relative abundance of the Appalachian grizzled skipper (<i>Pyrgus centaureae wyandot</i>) in the Eastern United States Geochemical, mineralogical, and isotopic evidence for multi-stage genesis of the Hicks Dome REE + Y-HFSE-fluorite deposit, Illinois, USA Status and trends of pelagic and benthic prey fish populations in Lake Michigan, 2025 Continuous and high-resolution longitudinal profiles of the water surface and riverbed elevation for 282 miles of the Colorado River from Lees Ferry to Pearce Ferry, Arizona, 2021 Biochar modulates the dynamics of legacy nutrients in enhancing soil health and crop productivity Tracking toxins: A pilot investigation of cyanotoxins in north-central Tennessee’s surface waters and wells Waves, watersheds, and sediment in a coral reef embayment: Towards parsimonious models of accumulation and composition High-resolution transboundary vegetation community maps of the Sonoran and Mojave Desert ecoregion to support critical landscape conservation planning and habitat management needs Rearing method has limited effect on post-release movement of reintroduced age-0 Lake Sturgeon Critical minerals memory match game Indicators of mercury concentration in Lake Trout: Can fish location and appearance provide information to anglers to reduce their exposure? Ecology of reintroduced Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep in Dinosaur National Monument Modeling the seasonality of wind-driven hydrocarbon waves in Titan’s polar lakes
Assessing the prevalence, timing, and rapidity of transit...
Caelan Simeone · 2026-06-22 · via USGS Publications Warehouse

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Abstract

Rapid shifts between droughts and floods, termed hydrological whiplash, challenge water management, yet their timing and drivers remain poorly understood at continental scales. While drought-to-flood (DtF) transitions have received growing attention, flood-to-drought (FtD) transitions — though rarer — pose distinct operational challenges that are less well characterized. These wet-to-dry shifts can disrupt post-flood recovery, strain warm-season water demands, and create compounding risks for infrastructure and water quality. We analyzed daily streamflow records from 3,219 USGS streamgages (1981-2024) to characterize both DtF and FtD transitions across CONUS, with particular emphasis on understanding why these transitions are not symmetric inverses of each other. We test a wide variety of hydrological extreme transition definitions to examine the sensitivity of the number of transitions identified and their rapidity. Additionally, we identify a subset of transitions that may be impactful based on the maximum change in percentile magnitude during a transition. DtF transitions are faster than FtD transitions, and short-term (<= 30-days) transitions in both directions are concentrated in the Northeast, Northwest, and Rocky Mountains regions. Short-term DtF transitions are additionally concentrated in southern California and along the line from North Dakota down to Texas where precipitation approximately equals potential evapotranspiration. We find direction-specific controls: snow-dominated, urban, regulated, and minimally disturbed basins show the most frequent impactful DtF transitions, while regulated basins are most prone to impactful FtD transitions. Rapid and impactful transitions make up a substantially larger fraction of DtF transitions than FtD transitions across nearly all basin types. A key finding is that hydrological and meteorological whiplash rarely coincide: only 19-24% of hydrological extreme transitions co-occur with hydroclimate whiplash, revealing that basin storage, regulation, and routing processes create a fundamental decoupling between climate forcing and streamflow response. Our findings highlight the need to better understand quick hydrological transitions under increasing hydroclimatic volatility, particularly the understudied FtD direction, and the mechanisms by which anthropogenic modifications reshape the hydrological whiplash risk.

Suggested Citation

Simeone, C., and Hammond, J., 2026, Assessing the prevalence, timing, and rapidity of transitions between hydrological extremes and their relation to meteorological extremes in the conterminous United States: EGUSphere, preprint posted June 02, 2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2731.

Publication type Preprint
Publication Subtype Preprint
Title Assessing the prevalence, timing, and rapidity of transitions between hydrological extremes and their relation to meteorological extremes in the conterminous United States
Series title EGUSphere
DOI 10.5194/egusphere-2026-2731
Publication Date June 02, 2026
Year Published 2026
Language English
Publisher EGUsphere
Contributing office(s) Oregon Water Science Center, Maryland-Delaware-District of Columbia Water Science Center
Description 43 p.
Additional publication details