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Perceptions of parcel-level wildfire risk differ between ...
Kelly Wallace · 2026-06-24 · via USGS Publications Warehouse

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Abstract

Wildfire risk mitigation on private property is central to reducing community wildfire vulnerability. Homeowners have control over many of the key factors that contribute to wildfire risk on their parcels, yet vulnerable conditions persist. One potential explanation is a misalignment between homeowners' and trained assessors' perceptions of parcel-level wildfire risk. Prior research has documented a “risk gap” in a single community wherein owners often underestimate their parcel-level wildfire risk; however, it is unclear whether such misalignments are widespread. This study replicates and expands previous research by examining the parcel-level wildfire risk gap in 38 wildland–urban interface (WUI) communities across the Western United States using paired data from household surveys and parcel-level wildfire risk assessments by trained assessors. We find that homeowners and assessors often perceive parcel characteristics differently. Homeowners may systematically mis-weight their importance, tending to underweight key controllable factors such as building materials and defensible space, leading to meaningful divergence from trained assessor ratings. Accordingly, we also find that homeowners generally underestimate overall parcel wildfire risk compared to trained assessors. These results suggest that even when homeowners recognize attributes on their parcels that contribute to wildfire risk, they may not fully grasp how much the attributes contribute to overall parcel risk, potentially failing to recognize the need to undertake meaningful mitigation actions. The findings from this study contribute to the broader natural hazards literature on expert-layperson risk perception gaps and offer insights for improving wildfire communication, education, and mitigation strategies in WUI communities.

Suggested Citation

Wallace, K., Webster, G., Brenkert-Smith, H., Champ, P.A., Donovan, C., Wagner, C., Barth, C.M., Kuehn, J., Wittenbrink, S., and Meldrum, J.R., 2026, Perceptions of parcel-level wildfire risk differ between homeowners and trained assessors in wildland-urban interface communities across the western United States: Risk Analysis, v. 46, no. 7, e70268, 15 p., https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70268.

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Perceptions of parcel-level wildfire risk differ between homeowners and trained assessors in wildland-urban interface communities across the western United States
Series title Risk Analysis
DOI 10.1111/risa.70268
Volume 46
Issue 7
Publication Date June 23, 2026
Year Published 2026
Language English
Publisher Wiley
Contributing office(s) Fort Collins Science Center
Description e70268, 15 p.
Country United States
State Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming
Additional publication details