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USGS Publications Warehouse

Neutron scattering reveals fractionation of natural gas mixtures in unconventional petroleum reservoir pores: Perspectives on energy resource recovery and storage Summaries of goals, actions, and information needs by management entity Spawning habitat suitability models for Lake Erie cisco (Coregonus artedi) during the historical period of pre- and post-population declines 1877–1957 Inland recreational fisheries harvest far exceeds reported inland harvest in the United States Abundance and movement patterns of fish accessing a reconnected Lake Erie coastal wetland: Insights from high-resolution sonar data Ecology of Lake Erie – Wetlands and lake-wide planktonic communities: A synthesis The WOAH global wildlife health collaborating centre network (WOAH-WildNet): A coordinated and transformative approach to global wildlife health challenges Tsunami hazards posed by sublacustrine landslides in Lake Quinault, Washington State Detecting bumble bees in the wild using environmental DNA: Development and validation of a qPCR assay for the endangered Franklin’s bumble bee (Bombus franklini) Critical minerals in zinc ore—An update on Earth Mapping Resources Initiative Research in the Boulder Batholith region, Montana Computation of regional groundwater budgets for the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system Historical ice jams and associated environmental conditions on Osoyoos Lake A roadmap for implementing the Emergency Recovery Plan for freshwater biodiversity Arsenic and isotope concentrations in the lower Platte River valley of eastern Nebraska, early 1970s to 2023 Geochemical disequilibrium at the brittle-ductile transition Seabed maps showing topography, ruggedness, backscatter intensity, sediment mobility, and the distribution of geologic substrates in quadrangle 3 of the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary region offshore of Boston, Massachusetts Co-occurrence of pesticides and pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) across Zostera marina (common eelgrass) communities Range-wide relative abundance of the Appalachian grizzled skipper (<i>Pyrgus centaureae wyandot</i>) in the Eastern United States Geochemical, mineralogical, and isotopic evidence for multi-stage genesis of the Hicks Dome REE + Y-HFSE-fluorite deposit, Illinois, USA Status and trends of pelagic and benthic prey fish populations in Lake Michigan, 2025 Continuous and high-resolution longitudinal profiles of the water surface and riverbed elevation for 282 miles of the Colorado River from Lees Ferry to Pearce Ferry, Arizona, 2021 Biochar modulates the dynamics of legacy nutrients in enhancing soil health and crop productivity Tracking toxins: A pilot investigation of cyanotoxins in north-central Tennessee’s surface waters and wells Waves, watersheds, and sediment in a coral reef embayment: Towards parsimonious models of accumulation and composition High-resolution transboundary vegetation community maps of the Sonoran and Mojave Desert ecoregion to support critical landscape conservation planning and habitat management needs Rearing method has limited effect on post-release movement of reintroduced age-0 Lake Sturgeon Critical minerals memory match game Indicators of mercury concentration in Lake Trout: Can fish location and appearance provide information to anglers to reduce their exposure? Ecology of reintroduced Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep in Dinosaur National Monument Modeling the seasonality of wind-driven hydrocarbon waves in Titan’s polar lakes
Fifty years of riverine harmful algal bloom modeling: A g...
Jennifer L. Graham · 2026-06-10 · via USGS Publications Warehouse

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Abstract

This systematic literature review critically examines 162 articles on harmful algal bloom (HAB) modeling in riverine systems to uncover persistent gaps, redefine critical challenges, and propose trackable opportunities to advance future modeling efforts. Articles largely focused on site-specific applications (93%) across more than 80 rivers worldwide. Most modeled systems were large, eutrophic rivers with flow modifications or obstructions. Geographic clustering of modeled systems was pronounced, with South Korea accounting for 26% of articles, followed by Europe (25%), United States (21%), and China (12%). Modeling approaches were led by process-based models (59%), though use of data-driven models (37%) increased over time, reflecting advances in computing and monitoring technology. Modeling endpoints varied widely across the articles with many focused on gross measures of algal abundance and fewer representing more refined endpoints like algal toxins or community composition. Furthermore, inconsistent units and taxonomic resolution hindered comparability between models. Datasets used for model development and calibration typically spanned 5 years, with weekly to monthly sampling at 1–10 sites, though durations and site counts were positively skewed. Quantitative metrics of model skill were often absent and included a diverse set of metrics when reported. Across all models, nutrients, light availability, streamflow, algal physiological processes, and water temperature emerged as key predictors, though algal processes were rarely incorporated in data-driven models. Scenario analyses primarily were conducted with process-based models and addressed flow management, whereas forecasting applications were less common and typically used data-driven models. After almost 50 years of riverine HAB modeling, persistent challenges include underrepresentation of benthic habitats, neglect of side-channel and backwater influences, insufficient documentation of river features, and weak linkages between modeled endpoints and potential harms. Addressing these gaps through reporting of contextual information, models from other aquatic settings, benchmark datasets, and community-driven tools could advance riverine HAB modeling towards increased transferability and ultimately operational forecasts.

Suggested Citation

Murphy, J.C., Gorney, R.M., Lucas, L.V., Zwart, J.A., and Graham, J.L., 2026, Fifty years of riverine harmful algal bloom modeling: A global synthesis of approaches, challenges, and opportunities: Water Research, v. 303, 126240, 17 p., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2026.126240.

ISSN: 1879-2448 (online)

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Fifty years of riverine harmful algal bloom modeling: A global synthesis of approaches, challenges, and opportunities
Series title Water Research
DOI 10.1016/j.watres.2026.126240
Volume 303
Year Published 2026
Language English
Publisher Elsevier
Contributing office(s) Central Midwest Water Science Center
Description 126240, 17 p.
Additional publication details