Quantum technology company Q-CTRL has published a whitepaper illustrating that quantum computing systems are rapidly maturing to begin addressing battlefield problems in areas like contested logistics, defense industrial resilience, missile defense and counter unmanned aerial systems.
The company states that quantum-enhanced solutions to these problems are either already validated with its defense clients or are extended from cross-sector problems into defense contexts. These solutions translate into battlefield information advantages for the military planners.
The paper also provides forecasts (based on the IBM quantum computing roadmap) on the rate of current advancements and the timeline of maturity of these computational solutions.
Q-CTRL is headquartered in Chippendale, New South Wales, Australia. Its area of expertise is in developing software tools for quantum error suppression and quantum navigation. The error suppression comprises a set of techniques that reduce the likelihood of hardware error while quantum bits are being manipulated or used for memory storage.
The whitepaper highlights four use cases, where quantum enhanced solutions provided faster processing and better solutions (relative to classical computers) to complicated battlefield problems. These include:
Convoy routing, with an aim of providing logistics solutions that deliver materials on time while minimizing risk and showing resilience against enemy disruption. The study indicates 2027 as the estimated timeline for availability of quantum enhanced solutions, requiring 4.6x increase in qubit capacity from the current state of the art (up to 156 qubit IBM quantum computer).
Strategic airlift, with an objective of efficiently supplying a wide range of front-line commands with materiel specific to their operational needs over multiple domains and theatres globally. The study indicates 2028 as the estimated timeline for availability of quantum enhanced solutions, requiring 4.9x increase in qubit capacity from the current state of the art (up to 156 qubit IBM quantum computer).
Defense production resilience, with an aim of reconfiguring defense production for speed and resilience against enemy disruption. The study indicates 2029 as the estimated timeline for availability of quantum enhanced solutions, requiring 3.1x increase in qubit capacity from the current state of the art (up to 156 qubit IBM quantum computer).
Missile defense and counter-UAS, for enabaling effective systems for homeland defense as well as to protect forward-deployed assets in dynamic battlefields. The study indicates 2029 as the estimated timeline for availability of quantum enhanced solutions, requiring 4.1x increase in qubit capacity from the current state of the art (up to 156 qubit IBM quantum computer).
“Quantum technology is set to provide the decisive edge to secure battlefield advantage for the United States and its allies,” said Dr. Michael Hush, Chief Scientist at Q-CTRL.
“Strategic investments through the Department of War’s critical technology initiatives and the National Quantum Initiative position the United States as a global leader, set to secure true battlefield information dominance for years to come. Q-CTRL works to empower mission planners to solve the critical logistical, planning, and operational problems that win wars. We’re committed to delivering the strategic advantage required for high-stakes missions, bringing the most advanced capabilities in quantum computing to the AUKUS partnership.”
Currently Nighthawk is IBM’s quantum computing platform for exploring and scaling large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computing. It uses a square lattice, connecting each qubit to up to four neighbors. Nighthawk is expected to run circuits with 7,500 gates in 2026 in with up to three 120-qubit modules (360 qubits), 10,000 gates in 2027, and 15,000 gates in 2028.
IBM’s first fault-tolerant quantum computer, Starling, is projected for launch in 2029. It will be a modular, error-corrected quantum-centric supercomputer with 200 qubits capable of running 100 million gates.
By 2033+ IBM will scale fault-tolerant quantum computers to deliver a system, called Blue Jay. It will be capable of running circuits of 1 billion gates on up to 2000 qubits.
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