Analysts also pointed to a recent simulation that underscored the risks posed by Japan’s growing strike capabilities. Amid heightened tensions in December, following remarks by Japan’s prime minister on Taiwan, the PLA Navy’s Liaoning carrier strike group took an uncommon route through waters east of Japan. 

Tokyo responded by scrambling 12 F-2 fighter jets carrying a combined 64 ASM-2 anti-ship missiles, a move that Chinese analysts cited as evidence of Japan’s ability to rapidly concentrate anti-ship firepower against high-value naval targets. 

Analysts call for stronger carrier defenses against saturation attacks

The scale and complexity of Japan’s training activities have drawn particular attention from Chinese military observers. Fu Qianshao, a military expert and former PLA Navy officer, argued that exercises involving large numbers of fighter aircraft and anti-ship missiles demonstrate the potential threat posed to aircraft carrier strike groups. 

As quoted by the South China Morning Post, Fu noted that saturation attacks designed to overwhelm defences remain a significant challenge for any navy, underscoring the need for China to continue improving the survivability, air defence capabilities and operational effectiveness of its carrier formations.

Japan is also fielding upgraded Type-12 anti-ship missiles with a much longer range as part of its broader defense expansion. Positioned near the East China Sea, the missiles could allow Japan to cover a far larger area than before, increasing pressure on Chinese naval operations in the region. 

According to military commentator Song Zhongping, the deployment could create additional challenges for China’s aircraft carrier groups during a conflict. He argued that coordinated attacks involving large numbers of missiles and fighter aircraft, particularly when combined with stealth platforms, could place significant strain on a carrier strike group’s defensive systems.

Growing threat from Japan’s air-launched missile plans

Attention is increasingly turning to Japan’s future missile programs, particularly the prospect of an air-launched variant of the Type 12 anti-ship missile. Chinese military observers argue that such a weapon could provide greater range, speed and targeting flexibility than Japan’s current anti-ship missile inventory, further strengthening Tokyo’s ability to strike maritime targets. 

Similar concerns appeared in a February article published by Aerospace Knowledge, a magazine affiliated with the Chinese Society of Aeronautics and Astronautics. The publication described Japanese air power as a credible challenge to Chinese carrier strike groups, while also arguing that China’s integrated naval and air strike capabilities could exert significant pressure on Japan’s light aircraft carriers in a potential conflict.

Furthermore, Chinese military observers believe Japan’s future long-range anti-ship strike capability will rely heavily on F-2 fighter jets armed with air-launched Type 12 missiles, enabling attacks against naval targets from distances beyond 310 miles. Analysts argue that this evolving threat environment reinforces the need for the PLA Navy to continue improving both its equipment and operational training.

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