A EU-funded research project has just unveiled the first comprehensive map of Europe’s “urban mine.” It is an inventory of the wealth buried in discarded electronics, dead car batteries, demolished buildings, and rusted wind turbines. 

The project called FutuRaM (Future Availability of Secondary Raw Materials) mapped 42 critical raw materials (CRMs) across 31 European countries. 

It was found that by 2050, advanced recovery systems could reclaim between 4.5 and 6.2 million tons (4.1 and 5.7 million tonnes) of CRMs annually. Under a full circular economy scenario, this secondary material could substitute up to 56 percent of primary resource needs. Eventually, it could reduce Europe’s reliance on foreign imports and secure the supply chains necessary for electric vehicles, batteries, and renewable energy technologies.

2050 recovery potential

Driven by rapid digitalization, electrification, and the deployment of renewable energy, the volume of CRM-containing products entering Europe’s waste streams is poised for massive growth, creating a highly lucrative recovery pool by 2050.

The data, now live via a digital tool called the Urban Mine Platform, reveals an astonishing blind spot in Europe’s industrial strategy. In 2022 alone, 5.7 million tons (5.2 million tonnes) of critical raw materials were packed into products hitting the European market. Yet, only 1.5 million tons (1.4 million tonnes) were recovered.

Where did the rest go? Millions of tonnes slipped right through the cracks. The waste was lost to illegal waste flows, unaligned recycling systems, or shipped abroad as second-hand exports.

This massive leakage is a severe economic vulnerability. Currently, Europe relies almost entirely on foreign nations for the ingredients of its future. China controls the market for rare earths. The Democratic Republic of Congo dominates the cobalt supply. South Africa holds a monopoly on platinum.

But if Europe gets serious about its garbage, the geopolitical leverage shifts.

Researchers project that by 2050, advanced recovery systems could extract up to 6.4 million tons of CRMs every year. In a fully circular economy, that is enough to replace 56 percent of Europe’s primary material imports.

The scale of the untapped bounty is immense. Take the materials critical to the electric vehicle revolution. By 2050, annual lithium recovery could skyrocket from less than 1,102 tons (1,000 tonnes) today to over 55,115 tons (50,000 tonnes). Cobalt recycling could expand forty-fold. Nickel recovery could leap past 188,495 tons (171,000 tonnes) annually.

Net climate benefit

Trash also offers a massive climate dividend. By mid-century, recycling rather than mining could prevent up to 300 million tons (273 million tonnes) of CO2 emissions per year. That is roughly equivalent to wiping out Spain’s entire annual carbon footprint.

Realizing this potential, however, requires plugging severe structural leaks in current recycling frameworks. 

For instance, by upgrading domestic collection infrastructure, tracking systems, and regional refining capacities, Europe can stop exporting partially processed resources like battery “black mass” and instead lock in both resource security and major emissions reductions.

To make recycling projects viable in Europe and secure Critical Raw Materials (CRMs), a new decision-making tool called SARA4UNFC has been developed under the FutuRaM project. Adapted from the United Nations Framework Classification (UNFC) for mining, this tool provides a standardized framework to evaluate waste streams across technical, economic, social, and environmental metrics. 

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